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Kramari Koprivnica

Founded 1972 in Koprivnica

Dvorana na Bregi, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kramari Koprivnica's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Kramari Koprivnica's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

3.8Points say

79.2Scored a game

84.4Allowed a game

−5.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 030
Points allowed	1 097
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0650
To the power of 14	2.4164
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.4164)	29.27%
× 13 games played	3.81
Wins the points say	3.8 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kramari Koprivnica won 3 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

32.2 %

Kramari Koprivnica win back 32.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.5 %. That is 1st of 14.

KRK 32.2 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: 146 ÷ (146 + 307)	32.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

50.4 %

Kramari Koprivnica shoot 50.4 % effective. The league shoots 53.0 %. That is 13th of 14.

KRK 50.4 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: (376 + ½ × 114) ÷ 859	50.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

106.2

Kramari Koprivnica score 106.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.6. That is 12th of 14.

KRK 106.2

League 109.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 030 points ÷ 970 possessions	106.2
League mean, 14 clubs	109.6
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Eugen Jovović

#50 · SG

33/68shots

76points

+7.4vs expected

How we counted it

33 made of 68, 10 of them threes	33/68
Points: 2 × 33 + 10	76
His shots are worth (expected)	68.6
Above expected	76 − 68.6 = +7.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

KRK 50.4 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: (376 + ½ × 114) ÷ 859	50.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 14

KRK 19.5 %

League 18.2 %

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: 189 ÷ 970 possessions	19.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 14

KRK 32.2 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: 146 ÷ (146 + 307)	32.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

KRK 24.6 %

League 27.4 %

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: 211 tries ÷ 859 shots	24.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−16.8

Over 6 games Kramari Koprivnica's shots were worth 392.8 points and they scored 376 from the floor: 2.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−16.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 165 + 46	376
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	392.8
Shot-making	−16.8
A game	−2.80

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kramari Koprivnica
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	16	0.74	11.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	9	0.77	6.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	13	0.80	10.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 348 league shots	31	0.80	24.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	7	0.79	5.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	4	0.79	3.1
Rim · Drive64 % of 862 league shots	59	1.28	75.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	13	1.25	16.3
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 322 league shots	20	1.25	25.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	10	1.25	12.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	11	1.30	14.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	4	1.30	5.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	6	1.26	7.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	1	1.26	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	7	1.26	8.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	10	1.00	10.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 238 league shots	73	1.07	78.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	16	1.04	16.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 201 league shots	9	1.16	10.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 254 league shots	24	0.87	21.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 327	3	0.88	2.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 327	6	0.88	5.3
Total adds up	373	1.05	392.8

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Where Kramari Koprivnica shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

373 of 373 shots shown

44.2%

165 of 373 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 84 / 136 62% · avg 2.1 ft 40 of the 84 makes assisted league 62% 168pts

MID 35 / 91 39% · avg 14.8 ft 16 of the 35 makes assisted league 41% 70pts

THREE 46 / 146 32% · avg 25.3 ft 41 of the 46 makes assisted league 34% 138pts

165 of 373 from the floor, 376 points, + 77 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

97 of 165 makes were assisted (59%): 40 + 16 + 41.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kramari Koprivnica

36% 24% 39%

League

38% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kramari Koprivnica

35% 36% 24%

League

33% 8% 41% 18%

Kramari Koprivnica lean on pull-ups: 23.9 % of its shots against the league's 17.7 %.

How we counted it

Kramari Koprivnica: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	129 drives + 22 post-ups + 133 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 373

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Eugen Jovović SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/68 shots 68.6 expected 76 scored ▲ +7.4

Klaudio Ferjan SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/76 shots 79.9 expected 84 scored ▲ +4.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.