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Kregždės Kelmė

Founded 1965 in Kelmė

Kražantės salė, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kregždės Kelmė's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Kregždės Kelmė's points say about 11 wins in 22 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

10.8Points say

74.8Scored a game

75.0Allowed a game

−0.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 646
Points allowed	1 651
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0030
To the power of 14	1.0434
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0434)	48.94%
× 22 games played	10.77
Wins the points say	10.8 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kregždės Kelmė won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

28.9 %

Kregždės Kelmė win back 28.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.0 %. That is 2nd of 12.

KRK 28.9 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: 234 ÷ (234 + 576)	28.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

47.6 %

Kregždės Kelmė shoot 47.6 % effective. The league shoots 50.0 %. That is 10th of 12.

KRK 47.6 %

League 50.0 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: (608 + ½ × 172) ÷ 1 457	47.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.2

Kregždės Kelmė attempt 24.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.7, so 4th of 12.

KRK 24.2 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: 352 tries ÷ 1 457 shots	24.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Best shot-maker

Edvardas Gadeikis

#91 · SF

38/74shots

88points

+13.4vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 74, 12 of them threes	38/74
Points: 2 × 38 + 12	88
His shots are worth (expected)	74.6
Above expected	88 − 74.6 = +13.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 12

KRK 47.6 %

League 50.0 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: (608 + ½ × 172) ÷ 1 457	47.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 12

KRK 16.2 %

League 16.6 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: 259 ÷ 1 596 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 12

KRK 28.9 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: 234 ÷ (234 + 576)	28.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 12

KRK 24.2 %

League 22.7 %

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: 352 tries ÷ 1 457 shots	24.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+0.9

Over 9 games Kregždės Kelmė's shots were worth 578.1 points and they scored 579 from the floor: 0.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+0.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 251 + 77	579
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	578.1
Shot-making	+0.9
A game	+0.10

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Kregždės Kelmė
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 251 league shots	26	0.80	20.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 368	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 368	8	0.76	6.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 368	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 203	18	0.69	12.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 203	3	0.69	2.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 203	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot42 % of 272 league shots	33	0.83	27.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 358	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 358	6	0.80	4.8
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 471 league shots	37	0.81	30.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 603	5	0.83	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 603	5	0.83	4.1
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 052 league shots	84	1.20	100.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 653	10	1.22	12.2
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 367 league shots	35	1.28	44.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 653	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-up59 % of 215 league shots	11	1.18	13.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 287	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 287	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot57 % of 209 league shots	14	1.14	15.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 336	6	1.15	6.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 336	5	1.15	5.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 416	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 416	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	9	0.95	8.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 3 137	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 862 league shots	147	0.97	142.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 343 league shots	34	0.84	28.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 270 league shots	20	0.96	19.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 2 508	2	0.96	1.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 328 league shots	24	0.90	21.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 452	8	0.91	7.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 452	5	0.91	4.6
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 452	1	0.91	0.9
Total adds up	587	0.98	578.1

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Where Kregždės Kelmė shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

652 of 652 shots shown

43.9%

286 of 652 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 123 / 205 60% · avg 1.9 ft 71 of the 123 makes assisted league 61% 246pts

MID 76 / 173 44% · avg 14.4 ft 33 of the 76 makes assisted league 38% 152pts

THREE 87 / 274 32% · avg 25.0 ft 77 of the 87 makes assisted league 32% 261pts

286 of 652 from the floor, 659 points, + 139 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

181 of 286 makes were assisted (63%): 71 + 33 + 77.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kregždės Kelmė

31% 26% 43%

League

34% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kregždės Kelmė

31% 46% 16%

League

31% 45% 17%

How we counted it

Kregždės Kelmė: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	182 drives + 42 post-ups + 272 catch and shoot + 91 pull-ups = 587

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Edvardas Gadeikis SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/74 shots 74.6 expected 88 scored ▲ +13.4

Leopold Šebjanič PF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/84 shots 86.2 expected 90 scored ▲ +3.8

Napalys Ignatavičius SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/106 shots 101.3 expected 105 scored ▲ +3.7

Eitvydas Paliulis SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/84 shots 80.9 expected 81 scored ▲ +0.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.