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Krumpiraši Gospić

Founded 1976 in Gospić

Dvorana na Novčici, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Krumpiraši Gospić's wins trail its points

−1.1 wins

Krumpiraši Gospić's points say about 8 wins in 22 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little unkind.

7Wins so far

8.1Points say

74.9Scored a game

77.8Allowed a game

−2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 647
Points allowed	1 711
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0389
To the power of 14	1.7053
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7053)	36.97%
× 22 games played	8.13
Wins the points say	8.1 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Krumpiraši Gospić won 3 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

48.6 %

Krumpiraši Gospić shoot 48.6 % effective. The league shoots 51.1 %. That is 11th of 12.

KRG 48.6 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: (607 + ½ × 177) ÷ 1 430	48.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

101.7

Krumpiraši Gospić score 101.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.3. That is 10th of 12.

KRG 101.7

League 106.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 647 points ÷ 1 619 possessions	101.7
League mean, 12 clubs	106.3
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.4 %

Krumpiraši Gospić win back 24.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.3 %. That is 9th of 12.

KRG 24.4 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: 191 ÷ (191 + 593)	24.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Best shot-maker

Genaro Fonseca

#33 · PG

67/144shots

152points

+10.6vs expected

How we counted it

67 made of 144, 18 of them threes	67/144
Points: 2 × 67 + 18	152
His shots are worth (expected)	141.4
Above expected	152 − 141.4 = +10.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 12

KRG 48.6 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: (607 + ½ × 177) ÷ 1 430	48.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 12

KRG 16.5 %

League 17.0 %

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: 267 ÷ 1 619 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

KRG 24.4 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: 191 ÷ (191 + 593)	24.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 12

KRG 24.0 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: 343 tries ÷ 1 430 shots	24.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−62.7

Over 9 games Krumpiraši Gospić's shots were worth 577.7 points and they scored 515 from the floor: 7.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−62.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 227 + 61	515
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	577.7
Shot-making	−62.7
A game	−6.97

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Krumpiraši Gospić
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 252 league shots	27	0.78	21.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 376	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 376	6	0.74	4.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 475	7	0.75	5.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 475	3	0.75	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 242 league shots	39	0.81	31.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 316	3	0.82	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 316	4	0.82	3.3
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 472 league shots	45	0.75	33.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 616	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 616	8	0.74	5.9
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 171 league shots	92	1.23	113.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 797	17	1.23	21.0
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 377 league shots	34	1.32	44.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 797	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Post-up62 % of 205 league shots	13	1.25	16.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 261	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 224 league shots	16	1.28	20.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 355	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 355	7	1.25	8.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 521	4	1.24	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	7	1.00	7.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	3	1.00	3.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	3	1.00	3.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 968	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 727 league shots	120	1.00	120.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 285 league shots	22	1.05	23.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break33 % of 231 league shots	18	0.99	17.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 291	6	1.01	6.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 365 league shots	28	0.98	27.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 477	8	0.96	7.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 477	2	0.96	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 477	1	0.96	1.0
Total adds up	562	1.03	577.7

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Where Krumpiraši Gospić shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

611 of 611 shots shown

40.9%

250 of 611 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 119 / 212 56% · avg 2.1 ft 65 of the 119 makes assisted league 61% 238pts

MID 58 / 159 37% · avg 14.7 ft 23 of the 58 makes assisted league 38% 116pts

THREE 73 / 240 30% · avg 25.4 ft 64 of the 73 makes assisted league 33% 219pts

250 of 611 from the floor, 573 points, + 127 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

152 of 250 makes were assisted (61%): 65 + 23 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Krumpiraši Gospić

35% 26% 39%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Krumpiraši Gospić

35% 43% 18%

League

34% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Krumpiraši Gospić: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	197 drives + 26 post-ups + 239 catch and shoot + 100 pull-ups = 562

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Genaro Fonseca PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

67/144 shots 141.4 expected 152 scored ▲ +10.6

Jimmy Diaz SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/51 shots 52.4 expected 54 scored ▲ +1.6

Elías Lasa SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

64/156 shots 166.2 expected 151 scored ▼ −15.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.