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Kukuruzari Ub

Founded 1967 in Ub

Dvorana na Tamnavi, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kukuruzari Ub's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Kukuruzari Ub's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.8Points say

80.8Scored a game

76.5Allowed a game

+4.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 050
Points allowed	995
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9476
To the power of 14	0.4708
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4708)	67.99%
× 13 games played	8.84
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kukuruzari Ub won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

110.4

Kukuruzari Ub score 110.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.5. That is 1st of 14.

KUB 110.4

League 103.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 050 points ÷ 951 possessions	110.4
League mean, 14 clubs	103.5
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

14.9 %

Kukuruzari Ub give it away on 14.9 % of trips against the league's 16.5 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 14.

KUB 14.9 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: 142 ÷ 951 possessions	14.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.4

Kukuruzari Ub attempt 26.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.0, so 2nd of 14.

KUB 26.4 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: 225 tries ÷ 853 shots	26.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Ugrin Tasić

#6 · SG

62/140shots

142points

+5.9vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 140, 18 of them threes	62/140
Points: 2 × 62 + 18	142
His shots are worth (expected)	136.1
Above expected	142 − 136.1 = +5.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 14

KUB 51.8 %

League 49.8 %

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: (380 + ½ × 124) ÷ 853	51.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 14

KUB 14.9 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: 142 ÷ 951 possessions	14.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 14

KUB 26.0 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: 119 ÷ (119 + 338)	26.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

KUB 26.4 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: 225 tries ÷ 853 shots	26.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−2.3

Over 6 games Kukuruzari Ub's shots were worth 371.3 points and they scored 369 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−2.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 163 + 43	369
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	371.3
Shot-making	−2.3
A game	−0.39

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kukuruzari Ub
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	16	0.71	11.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	13	0.73	9.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	11	0.80	8.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up35 % of 353 league shots	20	0.70	14.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	8	0.73	5.8
Rim · Drive59 % of 861 league shots	64	1.18	75.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	7	1.20	8.4
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 296 league shots	20	1.22	24.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	19	1.20	22.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	10	1.17	11.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	5	1.17	5.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	4	1.17	4.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	5	0.94	4.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	2	0.94	1.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 333 league shots	98	0.90	87.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 203 league shots	10	0.92	9.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 228 league shots	9	1.04	9.4
Three · Pull-up32 % of 302 league shots	20	0.97	19.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	5	0.98	4.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	1	0.98	1.0
Total adds up	378	0.98	371.3

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Where Kukuruzari Ub shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

378 of 378 shots shown

43.1%

163 of 378 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 92 / 143 64% · avg 2.0 ft 55 of the 92 makes assisted league 60% 184pts

MID 28 / 81 35% · avg 14.4 ft 14 of the 28 makes assisted league 37% 56pts

THREE 43 / 154 28% · avg 24.9 ft 33 of the 43 makes assisted league 32% 129pts

163 of 378 from the floor, 369 points, + 79 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

102 of 163 makes were assisted (63%): 55 + 14 + 33.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kukuruzari Ub

38% 21% 41%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kukuruzari Ub

34% 10% 39% 18%

League

33% 42% 18%

Kukuruzari Ub lean on post-ups: 9.5 % of its shots against the league's 7.0 %.

How we counted it

Kukuruzari Ub: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	127 drives + 36 post-ups + 148 catch and shoot + 67 pull-ups = 378

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ugrin Tasić SG 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

62/140 shots 136.1 expected 142 scored ▲ +5.9

Ramiro Rosa SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

22/53 shots 51.4 expected 54 scored ▲ +2.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.