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Kurapkos Švenčionys

Founded 1993 in Švenčionys

Nalšios salė, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Kurapkos Švenčionys's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Kurapkos Švenčionys's points say about 2 wins in 22 league games. It has 1. The table has been a little unkind.

1Wins so far

2.5Points say

71.5Scored a game

83.0Allowed a game

−11.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 574
Points allowed	1 825
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1595
To the power of 14	7.9362
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 7.9362)	11.19%
× 22 games played	2.46
Wins the points say	2.5 adds up

Wins so far	1
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kurapkos Švenčionys won 0 and lost 5. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

96.9

Kurapkos Švenčionys score 96.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 107.1. That is 12th of 12.

KUS 96.9

League 107.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 574 points ÷ 1 624 possessions	96.9
League mean, 12 clubs	107.1
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

A leaky defence

112.2

Kurapkos Švenčionys let in 112.2 per 100 trips against the league's 107.1. Lower is better: 12th of 12.

KUS 112.2

League 107.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 825 allowed ÷ 1 626 possessions	112.2
League mean, 12 clubs	107.1
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.2 %

Kurapkos Švenčionys shoot 48.2 % effective. The league shoots 51.3 %. That is 12th of 12.

KUS 48.2 %

League 51.3 %

How we counted it

Kurapkos Švenčionys: (590 + ½ × 196) ÷ 1 426	48.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Best shot-maker

Elias Fröhlich

#11 · PF

34/70shots

76points

+5.5vs expected

How we counted it

34 made of 70, 8 of them threes	34/70
Points: 2 × 34 + 8	76
His shots are worth (expected)	70.5
Above expected	76 − 70.5 = +5.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 12

KUS 48.2 %

League 51.3 %

How we counted it

Kurapkos Švenčionys: (590 + ½ × 196) ÷ 1 426	48.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 12

KUS 19.2 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Kurapkos Švenčionys: 312 ÷ 1 624 possessions	19.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 12

KUS 25.7 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Kurapkos Švenčionys: 208 ÷ (208 + 602)	25.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 12

KUS 20.9 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Kurapkos Švenčionys: 298 tries ÷ 1 426 shots	20.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−62.8

Over 9 games Kurapkos Švenčionys's shots were worth 591.8 points and they scored 529 from the floor: 7.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−62.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 228 + 73	529
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	591.8
Shot-making	−62.8
A game	−6.98

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Kurapkos Švenčionys
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 240 league shots	12	0.78	9.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	5	0.75	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	3	0.75	2.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	18	0.79	14.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 263 league shots	23	0.75	17.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	7	0.81	5.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 513 league shots	66	0.80	52.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	8	0.79	6.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 154 league shots	76	1.21	92.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 728	13	1.22	15.8
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 354 league shots	23	1.23	28.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 728	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Post-up59 % of 239 league shots	14	1.17	16.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 309	7	1.17	8.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 201 league shots	13	1.25	16.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	7	1.28	9.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	4	1.22	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	6	0.99	6.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 683 league shots	145	1.05	152.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 287 league shots	27	0.92	24.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 259 league shots	23	0.97	22.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 261	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 416 league shots	40	0.87	34.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	8	0.87	6.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	6	0.87	5.2
Total adds up	591	1.00	591.8

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Where Kurapkos Švenčionys shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

662 of 662 shots shown

37.6%

249 of 662 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 110 / 193 57% · avg 2.0 ft 64 of the 110 makes assisted league 61% 220pts

MID 59 / 173 34% · avg 14.5 ft 24 of the 59 makes assisted league 39% 118pts

THREE 80 / 296 27% · avg 25.1 ft 67 of the 80 makes assisted league 33% 240pts

249 of 662 from the floor, 578 points, + 95 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

155 of 249 makes were assisted (62%): 64 + 24 + 67.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kurapkos Švenčionys

28% 27% 45%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kurapkos Švenčionys

25% 43% 24%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Kurapkos Švenčionys: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	149 drives + 47 post-ups + 256 catch and shoot + 139 pull-ups = 591

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Elias Fröhlich PF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

34/70 shots 70.5 expected 76 scored ▲ +5.5

Valentinas Fawole Injured PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

69/163 shots 163.6 expected 166 scored ▲ +2.4

Arijus Bagdonas SG 30 y

Modest21–40

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/74 shots 72.5 expected 69 scored ▼ −3.5

Lauras Grigas C 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

20/50 shots 51.2 expected 41 scored ▼ −10.2

Povilas Gogelis SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/96 shots 97.4 expected 69 scored ▼ −28.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.