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Kurgäste Wiesbaden

Founded 1963 in Wiesbaden

Kochbrunnen-Halle, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Kurgäste Wiesbaden's wins match its points

−0.9 wins

Kurgäste Wiesbaden's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.9Points say

79.8Scored a game

75.5Allowed a game

+4.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 038
Points allowed	981
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9451
To the power of 14	0.4535
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4535)	68.80%
× 13 games played	8.94
Wins the points say	8.9 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Kurgäste Wiesbaden won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

21.9 %

Kurgäste Wiesbaden win back 21.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 14th of 14.

KGW 21.9 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: 91 ÷ (91 + 324)	21.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

30.5

Kurgäste Wiesbaden attempt 30.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.9, so 1st of 14.

KGW 30.5 %

League 23.9 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: 241 tries ÷ 791 shots	30.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

54.9 %

Kurgäste Wiesbaden shoot 54.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.8 %. That is 2nd of 14.

KGW 54.9 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: (373 + ½ × 123) ÷ 791	54.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Ferdinand Nolte

#76 · SG

51/103shots

124points

+26.1vs expected

How we counted it

51 made of 103, 22 of them threes	51/103
Points: 2 × 51 + 22	124
His shots are worth (expected)	97.9
Above expected	124 − 97.9 = +26.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 14

KGW 54.9 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: (373 + ½ × 123) ÷ 791	54.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

KGW 17.5 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: 166 ÷ 948 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 14

KGW 21.9 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: 91 ÷ (91 + 324)	21.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

KGW 30.5 %

League 23.9 %

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: 241 tries ÷ 791 shots	30.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+18.4

Over 6 games Kurgäste Wiesbaden's shots were worth 346.6 points and they scored 365 from the floor: 3.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+18.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 156 + 53	365
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	346.6
Shot-making	+18.4
A game	+3.07

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Kurgäste Wiesbaden
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive32 % of 209 league shots	11	0.64	7.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 305	1	0.64	0.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 305	6	0.64	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 305	1	0.64	0.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 215	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 269	15	0.77	11.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 269	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 269	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 269	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 386 league shots	30	0.78	23.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	8	0.78	6.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 824 league shots	60	1.20	71.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 263	7	1.20	8.4
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 263 league shots	17	1.19	20.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 263	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 788	8	1.19	9.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 788	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 788	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 226	7	1.08	7.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 226	1	1.08	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 226	4	1.08	4.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 788	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 788	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 356	9	0.98	8.8
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 376 league shots	91	0.99	90.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 235 league shots	10	0.96	9.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 842	14	1.01	14.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 842	4	1.01	4.0
Three · Pull-up29 % of 271 league shots	23	0.86	19.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 358	2	0.83	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 358	2	0.83	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 358	1	0.83	0.8
Total adds up	353	0.98	346.6

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Where Kurgäste Wiesbaden shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

353 of 353 shots shown

44.2%

156 of 353 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 67 / 112 60% · avg 2.2 ft 36 of the 67 makes assisted league 61% 134pts

MID 36 / 85 42% · avg 14.4 ft 19 of the 36 makes assisted league 38% 72pts

THREE 53 / 156 34% · avg 25.0 ft 44 of the 53 makes assisted league 33% 159pts

156 of 353 from the floor, 365 points, + 95 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

99 of 156 makes were assisted (63%): 36 + 19 + 44.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Kurgäste Wiesbaden

32% 24% 44%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Kurgäste Wiesbaden

32% 43% 20%

League

32% 44% 18%

How we counted it

Kurgäste Wiesbaden: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	113 drives + 17 post-ups + 151 catch and shoot + 72 pull-ups = 353

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ferdinand Nolte SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

51/103 shots 97.9 expected 124 scored ▲ +26.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.