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Lađari Metković

Founded 1958 in Metković

Dvorana na Neretvanskom keju, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Lađari Metković's wins match its points

−0.9 wins

Lađari Metković's points say about 6 wins in 22 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.9Points say

71.6Scored a game

76.9Allowed a game

−5.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 576
Points allowed	1 692
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0736
To the power of 14	2.7028
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.7028)	27.01%
× 22 games played	5.94
Wins the points say	5.9 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Lađari Metković won 2 and lost 6. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

15.6

Lađari Metković attempt 15.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.2, so 12th of 12.

LAM 15.6 %

League 22.2 %

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: 230 tries ÷ 1 478 shots	15.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

99.0

Lađari Metković score 99.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.6. That is 11th of 12.

LAM 99.0

League 105.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 576 points ÷ 1 592 possessions	99.0
League mean, 12 clubs	105.6
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

47.6 %

Lađari Metković shoot 47.6 % effective. The league shoots 50.2 %. That is 11th of 12.

LAM 47.6 %

League 50.2 %

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: (597 + ½ × 212) ÷ 1 478	47.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Best shot-maker

Marko Fras

#33 · PG

40/78shots

87points

+8.0vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 78, 7 of them threes	40/78
Points: 2 × 40 + 7	87
His shots are worth (expected)	79.0
Above expected	87 − 79.0 = +8.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 12

LAM 47.6 %

League 50.2 %

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: (597 + ½ × 212) ÷ 1 478	47.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 12

LAM 15.2 %

League 15.9 %

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: 242 ÷ 1 592 possessions	15.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	15.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

LAM 24.6 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: 205 ÷ (205 + 630)	24.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 12

LAM 15.6 %

League 22.2 %

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: 230 tries ÷ 1 478 shots	15.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−25.3

Over 9 games Lađari Metković's shots were worth 581.3 points and they scored 556 from the floor: 2.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−25.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 239 + 78	556
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	581.3
Shot-making	−25.3
A game	−2.81

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Lađari Metković
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 250 league shots	26	0.73	18.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 361	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 361	6	0.70	4.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 200	16	0.73	11.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 200	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 263 league shots	22	0.81	17.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 338	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 338	1	0.83	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 554 league shots	55	0.81	44.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 737	14	0.80	11.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 737	7	0.80	5.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 737	1	0.80	0.8
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 156 league shots	89	1.26	112.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 779	13	1.24	16.2
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 380 league shots	27	1.26	34.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 779	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up63 % of 203 league shots	12	1.26	15.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 251	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 249	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 249	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 249	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 249	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 400	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 400	1	1.25	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 400	2	1.25	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 213	11	0.99	10.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 213	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 213	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 3 054	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 3 054	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 744 league shots	168	0.96	161.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 292 league shots	29	0.86	25.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break33 % of 246 league shots	12	0.99	11.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 2 315	6	0.95	5.7
Three · Pull-up30 % of 375 league shots	30	0.91	27.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 512	6	0.88	5.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 512	4	0.88	3.5
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 512	2	0.88	1.8
Total adds up	590	0.99	581.3

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Where Lađari Metković shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

660 of 660 shots shown

40.8%

269 of 660 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 111 / 182 61% · avg 1.9 ft 43 of the 111 makes assisted league 60% 222pts

MID 69 / 174 40% · avg 14.2 ft 27 of the 69 makes assisted league 39% 138pts

THREE 89 / 304 29% · avg 25.3 ft 80 of the 89 makes assisted league 32% 267pts

269 of 660 from the floor, 627 points, + 84 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

150 of 269 makes were assisted (56%): 43 + 27 + 80.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Lađari Metković

27% 26% 46%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Lađari Metković

31% 43% 21%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Lađari Metković: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	181 drives + 34 post-ups + 251 catch and shoot + 124 pull-ups = 590

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Marko Fras PG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/78 shots 79.0 expected 87 scored ▲ +8.0

Bože Strah PF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/52 shots 54.5 expected 60 scored ▲ +5.5

Oliver Šoškić SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/86 shots 87.2 expected 87 scored ▼ −0.2

Owen Harkness SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

55/145 shots 135.5 expected 131 scored ▼ −4.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.