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Laumės Zarasai

Founded 1975 in Zarasai

Zaraso ežero salė, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Laumės Zarasai's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Laumės Zarasai's points say about 10 wins in 22 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

10.4Points say

78.7Scored a game

79.3Allowed a game

−0.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 731
Points allowed	1 744
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0075
To the power of 14	1.1104
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1104)	47.38%
× 22 games played	10.42
Wins the points say	10.4 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Laumės Zarasai won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

108.9

Laumės Zarasai let in 108.9 per 100 trips against the league's 107.1. Lower is better: 9th of 12.

LAZ 108.9

League 107.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 744 allowed ÷ 1 602 possessions	108.9
League mean, 12 clubs	107.1
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.2 %

Laumės Zarasai win back 28.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 4th of 12.

LAZ 28.2 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: 214 ÷ (214 + 545)	28.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

25.5

Laumės Zarasai attempt 25.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.0, so 4th of 12.

LAZ 25.5 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: 365 tries ÷ 1 433 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Best shot-maker

Rimantas Gvozdas

#74 · SG

74/142shots

163points

+11.6vs expected

How we counted it

74 made of 142, 15 of them threes	74/142
Points: 2 × 74 + 15	163
His shots are worth (expected)	151.4
Above expected	163 − 151.4 = +11.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 12

LAZ 51.7 %

League 51.3 %

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: (654 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 433	51.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 12

LAZ 16.0 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: 256 ÷ 1 602 possessions	16.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 12

LAZ 28.2 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: 214 ÷ (214 + 545)	28.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 12

LAZ 25.5 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: 365 tries ÷ 1 433 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−14.2

Over 9 games Laumės Zarasai's shots were worth 590.2 points and they scored 576 from the floor: 1.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−14.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 256 + 64	576
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	590.2
Shot-making	−14.2
A game	−1.57

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Laumės Zarasai
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 240 league shots	13	0.78	10.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	8	0.75	6.0
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	20	0.79	15.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 263 league shots	14	0.75	10.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	5	0.81	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 513 league shots	35	0.80	28.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	3	0.79	2.4
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 154 league shots	97	1.21	117.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 728	19	1.22	23.1
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 354 league shots	27	1.23	33.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 728	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up59 % of 239 league shots	24	1.17	28.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 309	5	1.17	5.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 309	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 201 league shots	25	1.25	31.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	9	1.28	11.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	11	1.22	13.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	13	0.99	12.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	5	0.99	5.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 683 league shots	122	1.05	128.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 287 league shots	19	0.92	17.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 259 league shots	16	0.97	15.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 261	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 416 league shots	28	0.87	24.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	1	0.87	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	2	0.87	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	1	0.87	0.9
Total adds up	564	1.05	590.2

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Where Laumės Zarasai shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

637 of 637 shots shown

45.2%

288 of 637 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 163 / 265 62% · avg 2.0 ft 85 of the 163 makes assisted league 61% 326pts

MID 54 / 130 42% · avg 14.1 ft 18 of the 54 makes assisted league 39% 108pts

THREE 71 / 242 29% · avg 25.2 ft 64 of the 71 makes assisted league 33% 213pts

288 of 637 from the floor, 647 points, + 124 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

167 of 288 makes were assisted (58%): 85 + 18 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Laumės Zarasai

41% 21% 37%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Laumės Zarasai

34% 10% 39% 17%

League

32% 41% 19%

Laumės Zarasai lean on post-ups: 9.8 % of its shots against the league's 7.7 %.

How we counted it

Laumės Zarasai: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	190 drives + 55 post-ups + 222 catch and shoot + 97 pull-ups = 564

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Rimantas Gvozdas SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

74/142 shots 151.4 expected 163 scored ▲ +11.6

Nauris Baika SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/51 shots 51.1 expected 61 scored ▲ +9.9

Robertas Miliauskas Injured SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/80 shots 83.2 expected 83 scored ▼ −0.2

Eugenijus Jakubauskas PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/124 shots 129.5 expected 118 scored ▼ −11.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.