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Lechazos Aranda de Duero

Founded 1977 in Aranda de Duero

Pabellón de las Bodegas, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Lechazos Aranda de Duero's wins match its points

+0.4 wins

Lechazos Aranda de Duero's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

3.6Points say

68.7Scored a game

73.6Allowed a game

−4.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	893
Points allowed	957
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0717
To the power of 14	2.6354
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.6354)	27.51%
× 13 games played	3.58
Wins the points say	3.6 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	+0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Lechazos Aranda de Duero won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

43.7 %

Lechazos Aranda de Duero shoot 43.7 % effective. The league shoots 48.4 %. That is 14th of 14.

LAD 43.7 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: (340 + ½ × 87) ÷ 877	43.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

94.5

Lechazos Aranda de Duero score 94.5 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 101.6. That is 13th of 14.

LAD 94.5

League 101.6

How we counted it

100 × 893 points ÷ 945 possessions	94.5
League mean, 14 clubs	101.6
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.2 %

Lechazos Aranda de Duero give it away on 17.2 % of trips against the league's 16.1 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 14.

LAD 17.2 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: 163 ÷ 945 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

LAD 43.7 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: (340 + ½ × 87) ÷ 877	43.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 14

LAD 17.2 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: 163 ÷ 945 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

LAD 30.5 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: 156 ÷ (156 + 355)	30.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 14

LAD 21.4 %

League 21.4 %

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: 188 tries ÷ 877 shots	21.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−19.9

Over 6 games Lechazos Aranda de Duero's shots were worth 374.9 points and they scored 355 from the floor: 3.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−19.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 158 + 39	355
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	374.9
Shot-making	−19.9
A game	−3.32

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Lechazos Aranda de Duero
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 224 league shots	17	0.74	12.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 311	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	14	0.72	10.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	20	0.74	14.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	9	0.74	6.7
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 396 league shots	28	0.68	19.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	7	0.66	4.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	2	0.66	1.3
Rim · Drive59 % of 873 league shots	76	1.17	89.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 378	17	1.18	20.1
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 294 league shots	14	1.23	17.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 378	3	1.18	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 210	10	1.15	11.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 210	2	1.15	2.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	12	1.19	14.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	1	1.18	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	5	0.92	4.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 375 league shots	79	0.95	74.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 240 league shots	14	0.84	11.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 810	16	0.93	14.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 810	3	0.93	2.8
Three · Pull-up29 % of 234 league shots	12	0.88	10.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	4	0.91	3.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	3	0.91	2.7
Total adds up	389	0.96	374.9

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Where Lechazos Aranda de Duero shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

389 of 389 shots shown

40.6%

158 of 389 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 83 / 145 57% · avg 2.0 ft 37 of the 83 makes assisted league 60% 166pts

MID 36 / 104 35% · avg 14.3 ft 16 of the 36 makes assisted league 35% 72pts

THREE 39 / 140 28% · avg 25.2 ft 33 of the 39 makes assisted league 31% 117pts

158 of 389 from the floor, 355 points, + 71 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

86 of 158 makes were assisted (54%): 37 + 16 + 33.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Lechazos Aranda de Duero

37% 27% 36%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Lechazos Aranda de Duero

35% 8% 41% 16%

League

34% 42% 17%

How we counted it

Lechazos Aranda de Duero: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	137 drives + 32 post-ups + 158 catch and shoot + 62 pull-ups = 389

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gabriel Ateş SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/124 shots 117.0 expected 102 scored ▼ −15.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.