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Limenergates Pireas

Founded 1924 in Pireas

Gymnastirio tou Kantharou, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Limenergates Pireas's wins trail its points

−1.0 wins

Limenergates Pireas's points say about 8 wins in 15 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little unkind.

7Wins so far

8.0Points say

83.4Scored a game

82.6Allowed a game

+0.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 251
Points allowed	1 239
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9904
To the power of 14	0.8738
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8738)	53.37%
× 15 games played	8.01
Wins the points say	8.0 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Limenergates Pireas won 3 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

110.1

Limenergates Pireas let in 110.1 per 100 trips against the league's 113.0. Lower is better: 5th of 16.

LIP 110.1

League 113.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 239 allowed ÷ 1 125 possessions	110.1
League mean, 16 clubs	113.0
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Weakness

Cold shooting

53.4 %

Limenergates Pireas shoot 53.4 % effective. The league shoots 54.3 %. That is 12th of 16.

LIP 53.4 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: (449 + ½ × 140) ÷ 972	53.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

28.5

Limenergates Pireas attempt 28.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.0, so 6th of 16.

LIP 28.5 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: 277 tries ÷ 972 shots	28.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Best shot-maker

Gonzalo Carrillo

#59 · SF

50/98shots

121points

+15.7vs expected

How we counted it

50 made of 98, 21 of them threes	50/98
Points: 2 × 50 + 21	121
His shots are worth (expected)	105.3
Above expected	121 − 105.3 = +15.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 16

LIP 53.4 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: (449 + ½ × 140) ÷ 972	53.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 16

LIP 17.1 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: 193 ÷ 1 127 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	10th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 16

LIP 26.0 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: 127 ÷ (127 + 362)	26.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	10th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 16

LIP 28.5 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: 277 tries ÷ 972 shots	28.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+8.4

Over 6 games Limenergates Pireas's shots were worth 412.6 points and they scored 421 from the floor: 1.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+8.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 179 + 63	421
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	412.6
Shot-making	+8.4
A game	+1.40

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Limenergates Pireas
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 224 league shots	12	0.79	9.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	8	0.84	6.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 209 league shots	15	0.80	12.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up44 % of 436 league shots	20	0.89	17.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	6	0.86	5.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	5	0.86	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	2	0.86	1.7
Rim · Drive63 % of 936 league shots	41	1.26	51.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	11	1.24	13.7
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 357 league shots	29	1.23	35.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Post-up58 % of 245 league shots	18	1.16	20.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 221 league shots	11	1.23	13.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	8	1.24	9.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	4	1.23	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	9	1.13	10.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 690	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 690	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 466 league shots	98	1.04	101.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 235 league shots	5	1.11	5.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break38 % of 258 league shots	21	1.14	23.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 012	5	1.07	5.3
Three · Pull-up33 % of 330 league shots	18	0.98	17.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	4	0.99	4.0
Total adds up	384	1.07	412.6

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Where Limenergates Pireas shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

448 of 448 shots shown

46.9%

210 of 448 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 107 / 167 64% · avg 2.0 ft 65 of the 107 makes assisted league 63% 214pts

MID 30 / 89 34% · avg 14.7 ft 16 of the 30 makes assisted league 41% 60pts

THREE 73 / 192 38% · avg 25.2 ft 64 of the 73 makes assisted league 36% 219pts

210 of 448 from the floor, 493 points, + 100 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

145 of 210 makes were assisted (69%): 65 + 16 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Limenergates Pireas

36% 20% 43%

League

36% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Limenergates Pireas

29% 8% 44% 19%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Limenergates Pireas: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	112 drives + 31 post-ups + 169 catch and shoot + 72 pull-ups = 384

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gonzalo Carrillo SF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/98 shots 105.3 expected 121 scored ▲ +15.7

Massimo Brewer PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/67 shots 72.1 expected 76 scored ▲ +3.9

Luciano Tanko PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/52 shots 55.1 expected 53 scored ▼ −2.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.