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Limesreiter Aalen

Founded 1974 in Aalen

Kocher-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Limesreiter Aalen's wins match its points

−0.9 wins

Limesreiter Aalen's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.9Points say

74.8Scored a game

70.8Allowed a game

+4.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	973
Points allowed	920
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9455
To the power of 14	0.4565
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4565)	68.66%
× 13 games played	8.93
Wins the points say	8.9 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Limesreiter Aalen won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

95.8

Limesreiter Aalen let in 95.8 per 100 trips against the league's 98.6. Lower is better: 3rd of 14.

LRA 95.8

League 98.6

How we counted it

100 × 920 allowed ÷ 960 possessions	95.8
League mean, 14 clubs	98.6
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

48.5 %

Limesreiter Aalen shoot 48.5 % effective. The league shoots 46.8 %. That is 3rd of 14.

LRA 48.5 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: (356 + ½ × 122) ÷ 859	48.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

16.7 %

Limesreiter Aalen give it away on 16.7 % of trips against the league's 15.7 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 14.

LRA 16.7 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: 160 ÷ 957 possessions	16.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Kaan Milošević

#7 · SG

51/112shots

117points

+13.4vs expected

How we counted it

51 made of 112, 15 of them threes	51/112
Points: 2 × 51 + 15	117
His shots are worth (expected)	103.6
Above expected	117 − 103.6 = +13.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 14

LRA 48.5 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: (356 + ½ × 122) ÷ 859	48.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 14

LRA 16.7 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: 160 ÷ 957 possessions	16.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 14

LRA 26.4 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: 125 ÷ (125 + 348)	26.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 14

LRA 22.6 %

League 21.4 %

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: 194 tries ÷ 859 shots	22.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−6.7

Over 6 games Limesreiter Aalen's shots were worth 373.7 points and they scored 367 from the floor: 1.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−6.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 159 + 49	367
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	373.7
Shot-making	−6.7
A game	−1.12

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Limesreiter Aalen
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 203 league shots	15	0.68	10.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 317	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 317	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 239	7	0.69	4.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 239	4	0.69	2.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot34 % of 207 league shots	10	0.69	6.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 276	3	0.66	2.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 276	1	0.66	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 385 league shots	24	0.73	17.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 501	8	0.73	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 501	6	0.73	4.4
Rim · Drive56 % of 922 league shots	61	1.12	68.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 382	13	1.19	15.5
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 281 league shots	18	1.35	24.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 382	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	13	1.20	15.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	10	1.20	12.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 257	4	0.89	3.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 257	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 350 league shots	112	0.93	103.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 213 league shots	19	0.80	15.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 759	11	0.91	10.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 759	2	0.91	1.8
Three · Pull-up27 % of 284 league shots	19	0.80	15.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 368	2	0.81	1.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 368	4	0.81	3.2
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 368	1	0.81	0.8
Total adds up	394	0.95	373.7

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Where Limesreiter Aalen shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

394 of 394 shots shown

40.4%

159 of 394 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 77 / 133 58% · avg 2.0 ft 43 of the 77 makes assisted league 59% 154pts

MID 33 / 86 38% · avg 15.0 ft 13 of the 33 makes assisted league 34% 66pts

THREE 49 / 175 28% · avg 25.0 ft 39 of the 49 makes assisted league 29% 147pts

159 of 394 from the floor, 367 points, + 70 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

95 of 159 makes were assisted (60%): 43 + 13 + 39.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Limesreiter Aalen

34% 22% 44%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Limesreiter Aalen

31% 44% 18%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Limesreiter Aalen: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	122 drives + 29 post-ups + 173 catch and shoot + 70 pull-ups = 394

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Kaan Milošević SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

51/112 shots 103.6 expected 117 scored ▲ +13.4

Brian Camacho Injured SG 26 y

Modest21–40

Age: 26
Potential: Modest (21–40)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

18/50 shots 48.1 expected 46 scored ▼ −2.1

Fabrice Audibert SF 23 y

Modest21–40

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

17/62 shots 55.3 expected 44 scored ▼ −11.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.