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Limoneros Yerba Buena

Founded 1965 in Yerba Buena

Gimnasio del Pie del Cerro, holding 5 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Limoneros Yerba Buena's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Limoneros Yerba Buena's points say about 12 wins in 15 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.8Points say

87.1Scored a game

79.4Allowed a game

+7.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 306
Points allowed	1 191
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9119
To the power of 14	0.2751
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2751)	78.42%
× 15 games played	11.76
Wins the points say	11.8 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Limoneros Yerba Buena won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

104.6

Limoneros Yerba Buena let in 104.6 per 100 trips against the league's 109.4. Lower is better: 2nd of 16.

LYB 104.6

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 191 allowed ÷ 1 139 possessions	104.6
League mean, 16 clubs	109.4
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Strength

Hot shooting

55.8 %

Limoneros Yerba Buena shoot 55.8 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 2nd of 16.

LYB 55.8 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: (463 + ½ × 163) ÷ 975	55.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.5 %

Limoneros Yerba Buena give it away on 16.5 % of trips against the league's 17.5 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 16.

LYB 16.5 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: 188 ÷ 1 142 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Best shot-maker

Walter Menezes

#67 · SF

42/81shots

102points

+14.5vs expected

How we counted it

42 made of 81, 18 of them threes	42/81
Points: 2 × 42 + 18	102
His shots are worth (expected)	87.5
Above expected	102 − 87.5 = +14.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 16

LYB 55.8 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: (463 + ½ × 163) ÷ 975	55.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 16

LYB 16.5 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: 188 ÷ 1 142 possessions	16.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 16

LYB 24.1 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: 118 ÷ (118 + 371)	24.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 16

LYB 28.8 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: 281 tries ÷ 975 shots	28.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+11.8

Over 6 games Limoneros Yerba Buena's shots were worth 403.2 points and they scored 415 from the floor: 2.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+11.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 176 + 63	415
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	403.2
Shot-making	+11.8
A game	+1.96

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Limoneros Yerba Buena
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	12	0.79	9.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 284	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 40 % of 1 272	11	0.80	8.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 256	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 407 league shots	17	0.78	13.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 543	7	0.78	5.5
Rim · Drive61 % of 961 league shots	59	1.22	72.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 500	7	1.22	8.5
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 344 league shots	22	1.21	26.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 500	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up65 % of 226 league shots	14	1.29	18.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 285	6	1.29	7.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 285	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot57 % of 216 league shots	11	1.14	12.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 336	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 336	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 336	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 230	10	1.22	12.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 230	4	1.22	4.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	3	1.14	3.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 210	3	1.14	3.4
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 608 league shots	85	1.04	88.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 261 league shots	19	0.94	17.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break44 % of 256 league shots	21	1.31	27.6
Three · Pull-up38 % of 320 league shots	20	1.13	22.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	2	1.11	2.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	2	1.11	2.2
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 453	1	1.11	1.1
Total adds up	370	1.09	403.2

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Where Limoneros Yerba Buena shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

975 of 975 shots shown

47.5%

463 of 975 from the floor, 15 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 233 / 401 58% · avg 2.1 ft 132 of the 233 makes assisted league 61% 466pts

MID 67 / 175 38% · avg 14.5 ft 29 of the 67 makes assisted league 39% 134pts

THREE 163 / 399 41% · avg 25.3 ft 151 of the 163 makes assisted league 36% 489pts

463 of 975 from the floor, 1 089 points, + 217 from the line

1 089 + 217 = 1 306 points in 15 games, the same as the league table and the wins the points say.

312 of 463 makes were assisted (67%): 132 + 29 + 151.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Limoneros Yerba Buena

41% 17% 43%

League

35% 20% 45%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Limoneros Yerba Buena

31% 9% 42% 18%

League

31% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Limoneros Yerba Buena: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	115 drives + 33 post-ups + 157 catch and shoot + 65 pull-ups = 370

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Walter Menezes SF 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

42/81 shots 87.5 expected 102 scored ▲ +14.5

Bernardo Franco SG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

36/78 shots 85.3 expected 90 scored ▲ +4.7

Gustavo Dalibard SF 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

16/50 shots 54.7 expected 37 scored ▼ −17.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.