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Lipicanci Đakovo

Founded 1993 in Đakovo

Dvorana kod Ergele, holding 4 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Lipicanci Đakovo's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Lipicanci Đakovo's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

7.2Points say

82.9Scored a game

81.7Allowed a game

+1.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 078
Points allowed	1 062
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9852
To the power of 14	0.8111
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8111)	55.21%
× 13 games played	7.18
Wins the points say	7.2 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Lipicanci Đakovo won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

54.6 %

Lipicanci Đakovo shoot 54.6 % effective. The league shoots 53.0 %. That is 4th of 14.

LID 54.6 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: (389 + ½ × 120) ÷ 823	54.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Strength

A strong attack

110.8

Lipicanci Đakovo score 110.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.6. That is 5th of 14.

LID 110.8

League 109.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 078 points ÷ 973 possessions	110.8
League mean, 14 clubs	109.6
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.8 %

Lipicanci Đakovo give it away on 18.8 % of trips against the league's 18.2 %. Fewer is better: 10th of 14.

LID 18.8 %

League 18.2 %

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: 183 ÷ 973 possessions	18.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Mirko Bezjak

#58 · PG

30/62shots

67points

+0.2vs expected

How we counted it

30 made of 62, 7 of them threes	30/62
Points: 2 × 30 + 7	67
His shots are worth (expected)	66.8
Above expected	67 − 66.8 = +0.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 14

LID 54.6 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: (389 + ½ × 120) ÷ 823	54.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

LID 18.8 %

League 18.2 %

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: 183 ÷ 973 possessions	18.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 14

LID 27.1 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: 108 ÷ (108 + 291)	27.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 14

LID 27.0 %

League 27.4 %

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: 222 tries ÷ 823 shots	27.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−5.9

Over 6 games Lipicanci Đakovo's shots were worth 396.9 points and they scored 391 from the floor: 1.0 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−5.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 169 + 53	391
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	396.9
Shot-making	−5.9
A game	−0.99

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Lipicanci Đakovo
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	14	0.77	10.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	10	0.80	8.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 348 league shots	21	0.80	16.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive64 % of 862 league shots	60	1.28	76.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	9	1.25	11.3
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 322 league shots	22	1.25	27.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	15	1.25	18.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	3	1.25	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	16	1.30	20.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	3	1.30	3.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	1	1.30	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	2	1.26	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	9	1.00	9.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 238 league shots	95	1.07	101.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	12	1.04	12.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 201 league shots	16	1.16	18.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 254 league shots	16	0.87	14.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 327	2	0.88	1.8
Total adds up	366	1.08	396.9

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Where Lipicanci Đakovo shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

366 of 366 shots shown

46.2%

169 of 366 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 83 / 142 59% · avg 2.0 ft 44 of the 83 makes assisted league 62% 166pts

MID 33 / 69 48% · avg 14.1 ft 16 of the 33 makes assisted league 41% 66pts

THREE 53 / 155 34% · avg 25.1 ft 49 of the 53 makes assisted league 34% 159pts

169 of 366 from the floor, 391 points, + 65 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

109 of 169 makes were assisted (64%): 44 + 16 + 49.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Lipicanci Đakovo

39% 19% 42%

League

38% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Lipicanci Đakovo

31% 10% 44% 15%

League

33% 8% 41% 18%

Lipicanci Đakovo lean on post-ups: 10.4 % of its shots against the league's 8.1 %.

How we counted it

Lipicanci Đakovo: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	114 drives + 38 post-ups + 160 catch and shoot + 54 pull-ups = 366

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Mirko Bezjak PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 5

30/62 shots 66.8 expected 67 scored ▲ +0.2

Rade Bašić C 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/58 shots 64.4 expected 63 scored ▼ −1.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.