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Livarji Prevalje

Founded 1957 in Prevalje

Dvorana na Fari, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Livarji Prevalje's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Livarji Prevalje's points say about 12 wins in 18 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little unkind.

10Wins so far

11.5Points say

72.4Scored a game

69.4Allowed a game

+2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 303
Points allowed	1 250
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9593
To the power of 14	0.5591
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5591)	64.14%
× 18 games played	11.54
Wins the points say	11.5 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Livarji Prevalje won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

97.7

Livarji Prevalje let in 97.7 per 100 trips against the league's 99.8. Lower is better: 3rd of 10.

LIP 97.7

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 250 allowed ÷ 1 279 possessions	97.7
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Weakness

Few trips to the line

18.8

Livarji Prevalje attempt 18.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 20.1, so 8th of 10.

LIP 18.8 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Livarji Prevalje: 227 tries ÷ 1 206 shots	18.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Strength

A strong attack

102.3

Livarji Prevalje score 102.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.8. That is 4th of 10.

LIP 102.3

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 303 points ÷ 1 274 possessions	102.3
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Best shot-maker

Žan Turk

#8 · SF

23/58shots

61points

+10.9vs expected

How we counted it

23 made of 58, 15 of them threes	23/58
Points: 2 × 23 + 15	61
His shots are worth (expected)	50.1
Above expected	61 − 50.1 = +10.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 10

LIP 47.3 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Livarji Prevalje: (484 + ½ × 172) ÷ 1 206	47.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 10

LIP 14.9 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Livarji Prevalje: 190 ÷ 1 274 possessions	14.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 10

LIP 27.1 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Livarji Prevalje: 188 ÷ (188 + 505)	27.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 10

LIP 18.8 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Livarji Prevalje: 227 tries ÷ 1 206 shots	18.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−15.2

Over 8 games Livarji Prevalje's shots were worth 496.2 points and they scored 481 from the floor: 1.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−15.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 209 + 63	481
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	496.2
Shot-making	−15.2
A game	−1.90

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Livarji Prevalje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 228 league shots	21	0.75	15.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	6	0.75	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	9	0.70	6.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	5	0.70	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 217 league shots	30	0.66	19.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	4	0.66	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	3	0.66	2.0
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	28	0.75	20.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	12	0.73	8.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	2	0.73	1.5
Rim · Drive59 % of 852 league shots	70	1.18	82.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	19	1.21	23.0
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 254 league shots	29	1.27	36.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	10	1.20	12.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	14	0.84	11.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	3	0.84	2.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	2	0.84	1.7
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	1	0.84	0.8
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 274 league shots	146	0.85	123.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 214 league shots	28	0.88	24.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	18	0.83	15.0
Three · Pull-up30 % of 276 league shots	26	0.90	23.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	6	0.87	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	3	0.87	2.6
Total adds up	535	0.93	496.2

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Where Livarji Prevalje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

535 of 535 shots shown

39.1%

209 of 535 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 102 / 161 63% · avg 2.0 ft 56 of the 102 makes assisted league 60% 204pts

MID 44 / 127 35% · avg 14.5 ft 15 of the 44 makes assisted league 34% 88pts

THREE 63 / 247 26% · avg 25.2 ft 52 of the 63 makes assisted league 30% 189pts

209 of 535 from the floor, 481 points, + 93 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

123 of 209 makes were assisted (59%): 56 + 15 + 52.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Livarji Prevalje

30% 24% 46%

League

33% 25% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Livarji Prevalje

32% 46% 16%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Livarji Prevalje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	171 drives + 36 post-ups + 244 catch and shoot + 84 pull-ups = 535

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Žan Turk Injured SF 34 y

Modest21–40

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/58 shots 50.1 expected 61 scored ▲ +10.9

Maxime Iwuoha SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

68/171 shots 156.9 expected 161 scored ▲ +4.1

Helmut Kayaalp PF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

24/66 shots 64.6 expected 49 scored ▼ −15.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.