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Llagares Oviedo

Founded 1949 in Oviedo

Pabellón del Naranco, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Llagares Oviedo's wins trail its points

−2.4 wins

Llagares Oviedo's points say about 12 wins in 17 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little unkind.

10Wins so far

12.4Points say

87.5Scored a game

81.5Allowed a game

+5.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 487
Points allowed	1 386
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9321
To the power of 14	0.3735
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3735)	72.80%
× 17 games played	12.38
Wins the points say	12.4 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−2.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Llagares Oviedo won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

30.2 %

Llagares Oviedo win back 30.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 1st of 18.

LOV 30.2 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: 169 ÷ (169 + 390)	30.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Strength

A strong attack

118.2

Llagares Oviedo score 118.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.2. That is 2nd of 18.

LOV 118.2

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 487 points ÷ 1 258 possessions	118.2
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

30.1

Llagares Oviedo attempt 30.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.8, so 3rd of 18.

LOV 30.1 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: 336 tries ÷ 1 116 shots	30.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Best shot-maker

Auguste Lagarde

#91 · SG

46/95shots

110points

+8.4vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 95, 18 of them threes	46/95
Points: 2 × 46 + 18	110
His shots are worth (expected)	101.6
Above expected	110 − 101.6 = +8.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 18

LOV 55.1 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: (531 + ½ × 167) ÷ 1 116	55.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	5th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 18

LOV 16.6 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: 209 ÷ 1 258 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	8th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 18

LOV 30.2 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: 169 ÷ (169 + 390)	30.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 18

LOV 30.1 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: 336 tries ÷ 1 116 shots	30.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+2.9

Over 8 games Llagares Oviedo's shots were worth 534.1 points and they scored 537 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+2.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 234 + 69	537
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	534.1
Shot-making	+2.9
A game	+0.36

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Llagares Oviedo
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	16	0.89	14.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	5	0.88	4.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	1	0.88	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	14	0.81	11.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 248	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	9	0.72	6.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	44	0.80	35.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	9	0.82	7.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	2	0.82	1.6
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	70	1.25	87.6
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	14	1.20	16.8
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	26	1.33	34.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 154	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	20	1.20	23.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	19	1.25	23.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	3	1.22	3.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	4	1.29	5.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	3	1.29	3.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	3	1.29	3.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	12	1.06	12.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	101	1.02	103.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	18	0.99	17.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	19	1.07	20.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	30	1.01	30.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	3	1.02	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	2	1.02	2.0
Total adds up	505	1.06	534.1

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Where Llagares Oviedo shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

505 of 505 shots shown

46.3%

234 of 505 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 116 / 184 63% · avg 1.8 ft 65 of the 116 makes assisted league 63% 232pts

MID 49 / 121 41% · avg 14.7 ft 25 of the 49 makes assisted league 40% 98pts

THREE 69 / 200 35% · avg 25.6 ft 61 of the 69 makes assisted league 34% 207pts

234 of 505 from the floor, 537 points, + 137 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

151 of 234 makes were assisted (65%): 65 + 25 + 61.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Llagares Oviedo

36% 24% 40%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Llagares Oviedo

32% 9% 37% 22%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Llagares Oviedo: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	161 drives + 44 post-ups + 188 catch and shoot + 112 pull-ups = 505

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Auguste Lagarde Injured SG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

46/95 shots 101.6 expected 110 scored ▲ +8.4

Custodio Callahan PF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/53 shots 57.6 expected 62 scored ▲ +4.4

Nicolás Pedrosa SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/55 shots 55.9 expected 54 scored ▼ −1.9

Francis Compton SF 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/85 shots 94.5 expected 92 scored ▼ −2.5

Francisco Baron Injured PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/71 shots 72.3 expected 62 scored ▼ −10.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.