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Llaguters Tortosa

Founded 1959 in Tortosa

Pavelló dels Remolins, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Llaguters Tortosa's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Llaguters Tortosa's points say about 3 wins in 13 league games. It has 3. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

3Wins so far

3.0Points say

67.9Scored a game

74.0Allowed a game

−6.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	883
Points allowed	962
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0895
To the power of 14	3.3190
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.3190)	23.15%
× 13 games played	3.01
Wins the points say	3.0 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Llaguters Tortosa won 1 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

93.1

Llaguters Tortosa score 93.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.6. That is 12th of 14.

LTO 93.1

League 99.6

How we counted it

100 × 883 points ÷ 948 possessions	93.1
League mean, 14 clubs	99.6
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

101.6

Llaguters Tortosa let in 101.6 per 100 trips against the league's 99.6. Lower is better: 12th of 14.

LTO 101.6

League 99.6

How we counted it

100 × 962 allowed ÷ 947 possessions	101.6
League mean, 14 clubs	99.6
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

46.1 %

Llaguters Tortosa shoot 46.1 % effective. The league shoots 48.1 %. That is 11th of 14.

LTO 46.1 %

League 48.1 %

How we counted it

Llaguters Tortosa: (319 + ½ × 140) ÷ 843	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Best shot-maker

Octavio Cummings

#65 · PG

46/110shots

115points

+11.2vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 110, 23 of them threes	46/110
Points: 2 × 46 + 23	115
His shots are worth (expected)	103.8
Above expected	115 − 103.8 = +11.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 14

LTO 46.1 %

League 48.1 %

How we counted it

Llaguters Tortosa: (319 + ½ × 140) ÷ 843	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

LTO 17.2 %

League 16.0 %

How we counted it

Llaguters Tortosa: 163 ÷ 948 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 14

LTO 23.3 %

League 24.2 %

How we counted it

Llaguters Tortosa: 114 ÷ (114 + 376)	23.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 14

LTO 19.3 %

League 20.7 %

How we counted it

Llaguters Tortosa: 163 tries ÷ 843 shots	19.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−9.5

Over 6 games Llaguters Tortosa's shots were worth 350.5 points and they scored 341 from the floor: 1.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−9.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 140 + 61	341
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	350.5
Shot-making	−9.5
A game	−1.59

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Llaguters Tortosa
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive35 % of 226 league shots	12	0.69	8.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 305	4	0.70	2.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 305	4	0.70	2.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 212	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	10	0.75	7.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	3	0.75	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 414 league shots	29	0.72	20.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 528	8	0.71	5.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 528	1	0.71	0.7
Rim · Drive55 % of 880 league shots	44	1.11	48.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 1 349	7	1.13	7.9
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 282 league shots	21	1.18	24.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 1 349	2	1.13	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	6	1.14	6.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	5	1.14	5.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	5	1.14	5.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 371	8	0.95	7.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 371	3	0.95	2.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 371	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 368 league shots	136	0.95	129.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 232 league shots	16	0.80	12.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 819	10	0.93	9.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 819	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Pull-up33 % of 305 league shots	18	1.00	18.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 403	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 403	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 403	1	1.03	1.0
Total adds up	371	0.94	350.5

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Where Llaguters Tortosa shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

371 of 371 shots shown

37.7%

140 of 371 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 55 / 95 58% · avg 1.8 ft 30 of the 55 makes assisted league 59% 110pts

MID 24 / 78 31% · avg 13.7 ft 14 of the 24 makes assisted league 36% 48pts

THREE 61 / 198 31% · avg 25.1 ft 45 of the 61 makes assisted league 31% 183pts

140 of 371 from the floor, 341 points, + 59 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

89 of 140 makes were assisted (64%): 30 + 14 + 45.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Llaguters Tortosa

26% 21% 53%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Llaguters Tortosa

29% 51% 17%

League

33% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Llaguters Tortosa: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	106 drives + 14 post-ups + 188 catch and shoot + 63 pull-ups = 371

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Octavio Cummings PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

46/110 shots 103.8 expected 115 scored ▲ +11.2

Baldomero Pineda SF 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/82 shots 76.6 expected 80 scored ▲ +3.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.