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Lugari Zaprešić

Founded 1956 in Zaprešić

Dvorana kod Novih dvora, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Lugari Zaprešić's wins match its points

+0.7 wins

Lugari Zaprešić's points say about 10 wins in 22 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

10.3Points say

78.6Scored a game

79.3Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 730
Points allowed	1 745
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0087
To the power of 14	1.1285
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1285)	46.98%
× 22 games played	10.34
Wins the points say	10.3 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Lugari Zaprešić won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

108.4

Lugari Zaprešić let in 108.4 per 100 trips against the league's 106.6. Lower is better: 9th of 12.

LUZ 108.4

League 106.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 745 allowed ÷ 1 610 possessions	108.4
League mean, 12 clubs	106.6
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Weakness

Few trips to the line

20.8

Lugari Zaprešić attempt 20.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.4, so 9th of 12.

LUZ 20.8 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: 301 tries ÷ 1 447 shots	20.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

52.6 %

Lugari Zaprešić shoot 52.6 % effective. The league shoots 51.6 %. That is 5th of 12.

LUZ 52.6 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: (661 + ½ × 201) ÷ 1 447	52.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Best shot-maker

Grgur Strnad

#24 · SF

67/120shots

161points

+37.4vs expected

How we counted it

67 made of 120, 27 of them threes	67/120
Points: 2 × 67 + 27	161
His shots are worth (expected)	123.6
Above expected	161 − 123.6 = +37.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 12

LUZ 52.6 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: (661 + ½ × 201) ÷ 1 447	52.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 12

LUZ 16.7 %

League 16.6 %

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: 269 ÷ 1 610 possessions	16.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 12

LUZ 26.9 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: 204 ÷ (204 + 554)	26.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 12

LUZ 20.8 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: 301 tries ÷ 1 447 shots	20.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+29.8

Over 9 games Lugari Zaprešić's shots were worth 608.2 points and they scored 638 from the floor: 3.3 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+29.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 275 + 88	638
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	608.2
Shot-making	+29.8
A game	+3.31

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Lugari Zaprešić
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive31 % of 242 league shots	16	0.63	10.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 373	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 373	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	15	0.70	10.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 240 league shots	23	0.72	16.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 309	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 309	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 504 league shots	34	0.69	23.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	3	0.68	2.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	7	0.68	4.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 193 league shots	102	1.22	124.5
Rim · Drive · second chance59 % of 200 league shots	20	1.18	23.6
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 367 league shots	29	1.34	38.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 812	9	1.24	11.1
Rim · Post-up62 % of 215 league shots	16	1.24	19.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	8	1.23	9.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	9	1.05	9.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	4	1.05	4.2
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 811 league shots	143	1.04	148.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 307 league shots	19	1.04	19.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 222 league shots	20	1.23	24.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 382	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Pull-up33 % of 350 league shots	33	1.00	33.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	10	0.99	9.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	3	0.99	3.0
Total adds up	582	1.05	608.2

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Where Lugari Zaprešić shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

649 of 649 shots shown

46.5%

302 of 649 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 152 / 239 64% · avg 1.9 ft 86 of the 152 makes assisted league 61% 304pts

MID 53 / 137 39% · avg 14.6 ft 27 of the 53 makes assisted league 37% 106pts

THREE 97 / 273 36% · avg 25.1 ft 75 of the 97 makes assisted league 34% 291pts

302 of 649 from the floor, 701 points, + 103 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

188 of 302 makes were assisted (62%): 86 + 27 + 75.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Lugari Zaprešić

37% 20% 43%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Lugari Zaprešić

35% 41% 18%

League

33% 42% 17%

How we counted it

Lugari Zaprešić: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	202 drives + 37 post-ups + 239 catch and shoot + 104 pull-ups = 582

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Grgur Strnad SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

67/120 shots 123.6 expected 161 scored ▲ +37.4

Damjan Klinar SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/113 shots 120.8 expected 153 scored ▲ +32.2

Maro Chapman SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

31/66 shots 69.8 expected 69 scored ▼ −0.8

Karim Bourdon PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

34/81 shots 83.7 expected 77 scored ▼ −6.7

Harold Castro SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

23/74 shots 74.5 expected 57 scored ▼ −17.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.