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Luminarie Salerno

Founded 1974 in Salerno

Palazzetto del Porto, holding 5 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Luminarie Salerno's wins run ahead of its points

+1.9 wins

Luminarie Salerno's points say about 8 wins in 19 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far

8.1Points say

83.7Scored a game

85.5Allowed a game

−1.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 591
Points allowed	1 625
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0214
To the power of 14	1.3445
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.3445)	42.65%
× 19 games played	8.10
Wins the points say	8.1 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+1.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Luminarie Salerno won 5 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

114.2

Luminarie Salerno let in 114.2 per 100 trips against the league's 109.2. Lower is better: 18th of 20.

LUS 114.2

League 109.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 625 allowed ÷ 1 423 possessions	114.2
League mean, 20 clubs	109.2
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Strength

Hot shooting

54.6 %

Luminarie Salerno shoot 54.6 % effective. The league shoots 52.7 %. That is 4th of 20.

LUS 54.6 %

League 52.7 %

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: (585 + ½ × 177) ÷ 1 234	54.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Weakness

Weak on the glass

25.4 %

Luminarie Salerno win back 25.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 16th of 20.

LUS 25.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: 160 ÷ (160 + 471)	25.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Best shot-maker

Hippolyte Didier

#26 · PG

54/111shots

124points

+7.5vs expected

How we counted it

54 made of 111, 16 of them threes	54/111
Points: 2 × 54 + 16	124
His shots are worth (expected)	116.5
Above expected	124 − 116.5 = +7.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 20

LUS 54.6 %

League 52.7 %

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: (585 + ½ × 177) ÷ 1 234	54.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 20

LUS 17.3 %

League 17.6 %

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: 246 ÷ 1 423 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.6 %
Rank, 20 clubs	6th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 16th of 20

LUS 25.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: 160 ÷ (160 + 471)	25.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 20

LUS 24.6 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: 303 tries ÷ 1 234 shots	24.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+22.4

Over 9 games Luminarie Salerno's shots were worth 604.6 points and they scored 627 from the floor: 2.5 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+22.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 272 + 83	627
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	604.6
Shot-making	+22.4
A game	+2.49

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Luminarie Salerno
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 374 league shots	22	0.77	16.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Post-up33 % of 261 league shots	10	0.66	6.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 321	2	0.62	1.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 357 league shots	15	0.77	11.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	4	0.74	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	6	0.74	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 845 league shots	63	0.79	50.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	8	0.79	6.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	10	0.79	7.9
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 771 league shots	89	1.25	111.7
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 296 league shots	14	1.11	15.5
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 586 league shots	30	1.35	40.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 738	3	1.27	3.8
Rim · Post-up63 % of 394 league shots	22	1.26	27.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 502	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 352 league shots	11	1.18	13.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	8	1.23	9.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	14	1.24	17.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	1	1.24	1.2
Three · Drive38 % of 208 league shots	9	1.14	10.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 756 league shots	132	1.04	137.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 433 league shots	19	0.92	17.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 473 league shots	21	1.07	22.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 713	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Pull-up35 % of 613 league shots	28	1.05	29.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 831	5	1.04	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 831	8	1.04	8.3
Total adds up	579	1.04	604.6

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Where Luminarie Salerno shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

579 of 579 shots shown

47.0%

272 of 579 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 138 / 201 69% · avg 2.0 ft 80 of the 138 makes assisted league 63% 276pts

MID 51 / 150 34% · avg 14.9 ft 20 of the 51 makes assisted league 39% 102pts

THREE 83 / 228 36% · avg 25.1 ft 73 of the 83 makes assisted league 34% 249pts

272 of 579 from the floor, 627 points, + 116 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

173 of 272 makes were assisted (64%): 80 + 20 + 73.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Luminarie Salerno

35% 26% 39%

League

35% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Luminarie Salerno

31% 39% 24%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Luminarie Salerno: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	180 drives + 35 post-ups + 224 catch and shoot + 140 pull-ups = 579

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Hippolyte Didier PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/111 shots 116.5 expected 124 scored ▲ +7.5

Yago Azevedo SF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

44/100 shots 105.5 expected 106 scored ▲ +0.5

Michele Caminha SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

24/53 shots 55.0 expected 54 scored ▼ −1.0

Fabio Molina PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/80 shots 83.1 expected 79 scored ▼ −4.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.