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Maglifici Carpi

Founded 1980 in Carpi

Palazzetto dei Pioppi, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Maglifici Carpi's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Maglifici Carpi's points say about 9 wins in 19 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.8Points say

77.7Scored a game

78.5Allowed a game

−0.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 476
Points allowed	1 492
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0108
To the power of 14	1.1629
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1629)	46.23%
× 19 games played	8.78
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Maglifici Carpi won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

107.3

Maglifici Carpi let in 107.3 per 100 trips against the league's 104.5. Lower is better: 17th of 20.

MAC 107.3

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 492 allowed ÷ 1 391 possessions	107.3
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Strength

Hot shooting

52.3 %

Maglifici Carpi shoot 52.3 % effective. The league shoots 50.4 %. That is 4th of 20.

MAC 52.3 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Maglifici Carpi: (550 + ½ × 185) ÷ 1 228	52.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Strength

A strong attack

106.8

Maglifici Carpi score 106.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.5. That is 5th of 20.

MAC 106.8

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 476 points ÷ 1 382 possessions	106.8
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

Best shot-maker

Maro Milost

#76 · SF

63/134shots

161points

+33.2vs expected

How we counted it

63 made of 134, 35 of them threes	63/134
Points: 2 × 63 + 35	161
His shots are worth (expected)	127.8
Above expected	161 − 127.8 = +33.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 20

MAC 52.3 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Maglifici Carpi: (550 + ½ × 185) ÷ 1 228	52.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 20

MAC 16.9 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Maglifici Carpi: 234 ÷ 1 382 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	10th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 20

MAC 26.3 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Maglifici Carpi: 173 ÷ (173 + 484)	26.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	9th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 20

MAC 21.6 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Maglifici Carpi: 265 tries ÷ 1 228 shots	21.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+19.4

Over 8 games Maglifici Carpi's shots were worth 517.6 points and they scored 537 from the floor: 2.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+19.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 229 + 79	537
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	517.6
Shot-making	+19.4
A game	+2.43

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Maglifici Carpi
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 396 league shots	30	0.77	23.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	5	0.77	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 242 league shots	10	0.86	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 384 league shots	16	0.74	11.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	5	0.79	3.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 708 league shots	26	0.73	19.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	5	0.73	3.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 663 league shots	76	1.18	89.9
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 261 league shots	20	1.10	21.9
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 547 league shots	21	1.31	27.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 557	8	1.21	9.6
Rim · Post-up61 % of 315 league shots	15	1.21	18.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 233 league shots	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	3	1.22	3.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	6	1.05	6.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	5	1.05	5.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 592	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 2 721 league shots	147	1.00	147.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 456 league shots	21	0.76	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 379 league shots	16	1.04	16.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 611	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Pull-up36 % of 532 league shots	28	1.07	29.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	6	0.99	5.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	3	0.99	3.0
Total adds up	514	1.01	517.6

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Where Maglifici Carpi shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

568 of 568 shots shown

44.9%

255 of 568 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 109 / 181 60% · avg 2.1 ft 58 of the 109 makes assisted league 60% 218pts

MID 57 / 125 46% · avg 14.9 ft 19 of the 57 makes assisted league 38% 114pts

THREE 89 / 262 34% · avg 25.3 ft 80 of the 89 makes assisted league 33% 267pts

255 of 568 from the floor, 599 points, + 112 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

157 of 255 makes were assisted (62%): 58 + 19 + 80.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Maglifici Carpi

31% 22% 46%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Maglifici Carpi

35% 43% 16%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Maglifici Carpi: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	179 drives + 35 post-ups + 220 catch and shoot + 80 pull-ups = 514

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Maro Milost SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

63/134 shots 127.8 expected 161 scored ▲ +33.2

Liborio Carrasco PF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

31/56 shots 58.7 expected 64 scored ▲ +5.3

Toni Lara PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

50/110 shots 113.0 expected 117 scored ▲ +4.0

Edoardo Nieto SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/81 shots 80.8 expected 80 scored ▼ −0.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.