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Mainschiffer Frankfurt

Founded 1939 in Frankfurt

Mainufer-Halle, holding 10 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mainschiffer Frankfurt's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Mainschiffer Frankfurt's points say about 11 wins in 17 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.0Points say

87.8Scored a game

84.2Allowed a game

+3.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 493
Points allowed	1 431
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9585
To the power of 14	0.5522
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5522)	64.42%
× 17 games played	10.95
Wins the points say	11.0 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mainschiffer Frankfurt won 0 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

17.0 %

Mainschiffer Frankfurt give it away on 17.0 % of trips against the league's 18.3 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 18.

MSF 17.0 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: 219 ÷ 1 285 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.3 %

Mainschiffer Frankfurt win back 24.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.0 %. That is 17th of 18.

MSF 24.3 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: 131 ÷ (131 + 408)	24.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

Strength

A solid defence

111.5

Mainschiffer Frankfurt let in 111.5 per 100 trips against the league's 114.2. Lower is better: 3rd of 18.

MSF 111.5

League 114.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 431 allowed ÷ 1 283 possessions	111.5
League mean, 18 clubs	114.2
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Best shot-maker

Jakob Borković

#30 · PG

36/65shots

86points

+12.4vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 65, 14 of them threes	36/65
Points: 2 × 36 + 14	86
His shots are worth (expected)	73.6
Above expected	86 − 73.6 = +12.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 18

MSF 56.3 %

League 55.5 %

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: (526 + ½ × 173) ÷ 1 087	56.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	55.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	7th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 18

MSF 17.0 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: 219 ÷ 1 285 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 17th of 18

MSF 24.3 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: 131 ÷ (131 + 408)	24.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 18

MSF 31.7 %

League 30.6 %

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: 345 tries ÷ 1 087 shots	31.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	30.6 %
Rank, 18 clubs	7th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+2.0

Over 8 games Mainschiffer Frankfurt's shots were worth 533.0 points and they scored 535 from the floor: 0.3 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+2.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 229 + 77	535
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	533.0
Shot-making	+2.0
A game	+0.25

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Mainschiffer Frankfurt
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 244 league shots	18	0.84	15.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 395	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 231 league shots	23	0.86	19.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 281	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 281	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 265 league shots	8	0.87	6.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 362	5	0.86	4.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 362	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 362	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 558 league shots	26	0.91	23.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	5	0.90	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	6	0.90	5.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 761	1	0.90	0.9
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 373 league shots	69	1.18	81.5
Rim · Drive · second chance64 % of 203 league shots	13	1.27	16.5
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 501 league shots	28	1.31	36.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 150	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Post-up60 % of 340 league shots	23	1.20	27.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 436	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 390 league shots	17	1.26	21.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	4	1.27	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	13	1.27	16.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 605	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	6	1.24	7.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 241	2	1.24	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	11	1.16	12.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	2	1.16	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	5	1.16	5.8
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 282	1	1.16	1.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 846	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 145 league shots	111	1.04	115.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 336 league shots	16	0.99	15.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 382 league shots	21	1.12	23.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 922	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Pull-up38 % of 451 league shots	21	1.15	24.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 611	1	1.08	1.1
Total adds up	490	1.09	533.0

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Where Mainschiffer Frankfurt shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

490 of 490 shots shown

46.7%

229 of 490 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 103 / 185 56% · avg 1.9 ft 60 of the 103 makes assisted league 63% 206pts

MID 49 / 106 46% · avg 14.0 ft 22 of the 49 makes assisted league 44% 98pts

THREE 77 / 199 39% · avg 25.3 ft 71 of the 77 makes assisted league 36% 231pts

229 of 490 from the floor, 535 points, + 166 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

153 of 229 makes were assisted (67%): 60 + 22 + 71.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mainschiffer Frankfurt

38% 22% 41%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mainschiffer Frankfurt

31% 12% 41% 16%

League

31% 8% 43% 18%

Mainschiffer Frankfurt lean on post-ups: 11.6 % of its shots against the league's 8.2 %.

How we counted it

Mainschiffer Frankfurt: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	153 drives + 57 post-ups + 201 catch and shoot + 79 pull-ups = 490

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Jakob Borković PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

36/65 shots 73.6 expected 86 scored ▲ +12.4

Martin Graf PF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/68 shots 75.2 expected 85 scored ▲ +9.8

Martín Delgado SG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

61/127 shots 135.2 expected 143 scored ▲ +7.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.