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Märchenerzähler Kassel

Founded 1978 in Kassel

Fuldaaue-Halle, holding 4 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Märchenerzähler Kassel's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Märchenerzähler Kassel's points say about 11 wins in 17 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.4Points say

88.7Scored a game

84.4Allowed a game

+4.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 508
Points allowed	1 434
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9509
To the power of 14	0.4944
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4944)	66.92%
× 17 games played	11.38
Wins the points say	11.4 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Märchenerzähler Kassel won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

119.7

Märchenerzähler Kassel score 119.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.1. That is 1st of 18.

MEK 119.7

League 109.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 508 points ÷ 1 260 possessions	119.7
League mean, 18 clubs	109.1
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Weakness

A leaky defence

113.8

Märchenerzähler Kassel let in 113.8 per 100 trips against the league's 109.1. Lower is better: 17th of 18.

MEK 113.8

League 109.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 434 allowed ÷ 1 260 possessions	113.8
League mean, 18 clubs	109.1
Rank, 18 clubs	17th of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

56.6 %

Märchenerzähler Kassel shoot 56.6 % effective. The league shoots 53.5 %. That is 2nd of 18.

MEK 56.6 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Märchenerzähler Kassel: (538 + ½ × 158) ÷ 1 091	56.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Best shot-maker

Georg Gambo

#20 · PF

33/58shots

72points

+8.3vs expected

How we counted it

33 made of 58, 6 of them threes	33/58
Points: 2 × 33 + 6	72
His shots are worth (expected)	63.7
Above expected	72 − 63.7 = +8.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 18

MEK 56.6 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Märchenerzähler Kassel: (538 + ½ × 158) ÷ 1 091	56.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 18

MEK 17.1 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Märchenerzähler Kassel: 216 ÷ 1 260 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 18

MEK 30.3 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Märchenerzähler Kassel: 163 ÷ (163 + 375)	30.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 18

MEK 32.9 %

League 27.9 %

How we counted it

Märchenerzähler Kassel: 359 tries ÷ 1 091 shots	32.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.9 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−8.8

Over 8 games Märchenerzähler Kassel's shots were worth 558.8 points and they scored 550 from the floor: 1.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−8.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 241 + 68	550
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	558.8
Shot-making	−8.8
A game	−1.10

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Märchenerzähler Kassel
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive46 % of 263 league shots	20	0.92	18.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	3	0.88	2.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	15	0.79	11.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 220 league shots	10	0.90	9.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	4	0.90	3.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 574 league shots	24	0.72	17.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	5	0.75	3.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 290 league shots	94	1.21	113.7
Rim · Drive · second chance65 % of 200 league shots	18	1.30	23.4
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 434 league shots	31	1.32	40.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 991	6	1.24	7.5
Rim · Post-up62 % of 267 league shots	22	1.24	27.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 300 league shots	24	1.19	28.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	2	1.28	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	6	1.24	7.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	3	1.24	3.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	3	1.19	3.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	2	1.19	2.4
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 326	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 326	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 883 league shots	113	1.13	127.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 272 league shots	22	1.20	26.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 331 league shots	19	1.06	20.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 533	6	1.12	6.7
Three · Pull-up32 % of 400 league shots	11	0.95	10.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	2	0.93	1.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	2	0.93	1.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	2	0.93	1.9
Total adds up	501	1.12	558.8

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Where Märchenerzähler Kassel shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

501 of 501 shots shown

48.1%

241 of 501 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 134 / 225 60% · avg 2.1 ft 73 of the 134 makes assisted league 62% 268pts

MID 39 / 92 42% · avg 14.4 ft 20 of the 39 makes assisted league 39% 78pts

THREE 68 / 184 37% · avg 25.1 ft 64 of the 68 makes assisted league 35% 204pts

241 of 501 from the floor, 550 points, + 134 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

157 of 241 makes were assisted (65%): 73 + 20 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Märchenerzähler Kassel

45% 18% 37%

League

37% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Märchenerzähler Kassel

36% 11% 42% 12%

League

32% 41% 19%

Märchenerzähler Kassel lean on post-ups: 10.6 % of its shots against the league's 7.8 %.

How we counted it

Märchenerzähler Kassel: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	179 drives + 53 post-ups + 209 catch and shoot + 60 pull-ups = 501

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Georg Gambo PF 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

33/58 shots 63.7 expected 72 scored ▲ +8.3

Gianluigi Brunet PF 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

30/52 shots 61.3 expected 68 scored ▲ +6.7

Hans Okezie SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/116 shots 127.9 expected 132 scored ▲ +4.1

Armand Laflamme PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/93 shots 103.6 expected 102 scored ▼ −1.6

Metod Mićić C 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/53 shots 60.1 expected 48 scored ▼ −12.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.