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Mariniers Tours

Founded 1948 in Tours

Salle du Cher, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mariniers Tours's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Mariniers Tours's points say about 12 wins in 19 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

12.0Points say

84.3Scored a game

81.1Allowed a game

+3.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 601
Points allowed	1 540
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9619
To the power of 14	0.5805
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5805)	63.27%
× 19 games played	12.02
Wins the points say	12.0 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mariniers Tours won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

16.0 %

Mariniers Tours give it away on 16.0 % of trips against the league's 17.3 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 20.

MAT 16.0 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Mariniers Tours: 229 ÷ 1 428 possessions	16.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Strength

A strong attack

112.1

Mariniers Tours score 112.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.4. That is 6th of 20.

MAT 112.1

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 601 points ÷ 1 428 possessions	112.1
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	6th of 20

Strength

A solid defence

107.9

Mariniers Tours let in 107.9 per 100 trips against the league's 109.4. Lower is better: 6th of 20.

MAT 107.9

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 540 allowed ÷ 1 427 possessions	107.9
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	6th of 20

Best shot-maker

Ismaël Umeh

#76 · PG

52/105shots

122points

+11.7vs expected

How we counted it

52 made of 105, 18 of them threes	52/105
Points: 2 × 52 + 18	122
His shots are worth (expected)	110.3
Above expected	122 − 110.3 = +11.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 20

MAT 52.9 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Mariniers Tours: (581 + ½ × 189) ÷ 1 276	52.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	10th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 20

MAT 16.0 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Mariniers Tours: 229 ÷ 1 428 possessions	16.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 20

MAT 27.9 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Mariniers Tours: 190 ÷ (190 + 492)	27.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 20

MAT 25.2 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Mariniers Tours: 322 tries ÷ 1 276 shots	25.2 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	11th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−44.5

Over 9 games Mariniers Tours's shots were worth 658.5 points and they scored 614 from the floor: 4.9 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−44.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 262 + 90	614
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	658.5
Shot-making	−44.5
A game	−4.94

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Mariniers Tours
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive41 % of 366 league shots	19	0.81	15.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	8	0.82	6.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up45 % of 284 league shots	11	0.90	9.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 423 league shots	11	0.86	9.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 778 league shots	35	0.80	27.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	11	0.81	8.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	5	0.81	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	1	0.81	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 750 league shots	92	1.22	112.1
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 299 league shots	18	1.14	20.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 624 league shots	33	1.29	42.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 2 775	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Post-up63 % of 427 league shots	23	1.26	29.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 361 league shots	23	1.21	27.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	7	1.26	8.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	9	1.17	10.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	6	1.17	7.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	1	1.17	1.2
Three · Drive38 % of 245 league shots	13	1.14	14.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	4	1.08	4.3
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	3	1.08	3.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 4 916	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 735 league shots	151	1.03	155.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 423 league shots	33	1.03	33.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 460 league shots	25	1.04	25.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 675	7	1.03	7.2
Three · Pull-up35 % of 607 league shots	29	1.04	30.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	7	1.02	7.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	3	1.02	3.1
Total adds up	616	1.07	658.5

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Where Mariniers Tours shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

616 of 616 shots shown

42.5%

262 of 616 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 128 / 228 56% · avg 2.1 ft 68 of the 128 makes assisted league 62% 256pts

MID 44 / 110 40% · avg 14.6 ft 23 of the 44 makes assisted league 40% 88pts

THREE 90 / 278 32% · avg 25.2 ft 79 of the 90 makes assisted league 35% 270pts

262 of 616 from the floor, 614 points, + 109 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

170 of 262 makes were assisted (65%): 68 + 23 + 79.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mariniers Tours

37% 18% 45%

League

36% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mariniers Tours

33% 43% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Mariniers Tours: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	203 drives + 43 post-ups + 262 catch and shoot + 108 pull-ups = 616

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ismaël Umeh PG 19 y

Strong61–80

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

52/105 shots 110.3 expected 122 scored ▲ +11.7

Marin Abara SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/62 shots 68.2 expected 67 scored ▼ −1.2

Hugues Abara C 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/78 shots 82.5 expected 80 scored ▼ −2.5

Uroš Martinović SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

59/139 shots 147.7 expected 142 scored ▼ −5.7

Benoît Okereke PG 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/75 shots 80.9 expected 73 scored ▼ −7.9

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gérald Lefebvre SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/73 shots 78.6 expected 69 scored ▼ −9.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.