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Merlettaie Isernia

Founded 1994 in Isernia

Palestra della Fontana Fraterna, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Merlettaie Isernia's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Merlettaie Isernia's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

6.1Points say

75.2Scored a game

75.9Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	978
Points allowed	987
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0092
To the power of 14	1.1368
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1368)	46.80%
× 13 games played	6.08
Wins the points say	6.1 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Merlettaie Isernia won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

15.4

Merlettaie Isernia attempt 15.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 20.2, so 14th of 14.

MEI 15.4 %

League 20.2 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: 131 tries ÷ 851 shots	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

51.8 %

Merlettaie Isernia shoot 51.8 % effective. The league shoots 48.8 %. That is 2nd of 14.

MEI 51.8 %

League 48.8 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: (375 + ½ × 132) ÷ 851	51.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.1 %

Merlettaie Isernia give it away on 15.1 % of trips against the league's 15.7 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 14.

MEI 15.1 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: 140 ÷ 928 possessions	15.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Fulvio Başaran

#48 · SG

40/90shots

101points

+17.7vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 90, 21 of them threes	40/90
Points: 2 × 40 + 21	101
His shots are worth (expected)	83.3
Above expected	101 − 83.3 = +17.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 14

MEI 51.8 %

League 48.8 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: (375 + ½ × 132) ÷ 851	51.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

MEI 15.1 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: 140 ÷ 928 possessions	15.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 14

MEI 24.5 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: 110 ÷ (110 + 339)	24.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 14

MEI 15.4 %

League 20.2 %

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: 131 tries ÷ 851 shots	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+56.6

Over 6 games Merlettaie Isernia's shots were worth 372.4 points and they scored 429 from the floor: 9.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+56.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 180 + 69	429
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	372.4
Shot-making	+56.6
A game	+9.43

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Merlettaie Isernia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive32 % of 201 league shots	11	0.65	7.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 309	5	0.65	3.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 309	5	0.65	3.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 309	1	0.65	0.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 224	4	0.69	2.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 224	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 224	3	0.69	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot34 % of 247 league shots	16	0.69	11.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 321	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 321	3	0.69	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 321	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up35 % of 335 league shots	19	0.70	13.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 447	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 447	4	0.70	2.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 447	1	0.70	0.7
Rim · Drive58 % of 933 league shots	79	1.16	91.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 1 385	15	1.17	17.5
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 256 league shots	13	1.20	15.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 1 385	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	12	1.18	14.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	1	1.18	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 306	4	0.91	3.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 306	3	0.91	2.7
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 376 league shots	113	0.90	102.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 262 league shots	17	0.84	14.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 841	11	0.89	9.8
Three · Pull-up31 % of 267 league shots	17	0.93	15.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 338	7	0.99	7.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 338	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	391	0.95	372.4

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Where Merlettaie Isernia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

391 of 391 shots shown

46.0%

180 of 391 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 84 / 138 61% · avg 1.9 ft 34 of the 84 makes assisted league 60% 168pts

MID 27 / 79 34% · avg 14.1 ft 12 of the 27 makes assisted league 37% 54pts

THREE 69 / 174 40% · avg 25.1 ft 58 of the 69 makes assisted league 31% 207pts

180 of 391 from the floor, 429 points, + 44 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

104 of 180 makes were assisted (58%): 34 + 12 + 58.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Merlettaie Isernia

35% 20% 45%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Merlettaie Isernia

35% 44% 16%

League

34% 44% 16%

How we counted it

Merlettaie Isernia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	137 drives + 22 post-ups + 171 catch and shoot + 61 pull-ups = 391

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Fulvio Başaran SG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/90 shots 83.3 expected 101 scored ▲ +17.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.