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Mermerari Aranđelovac

Founded 1995 in Aranđelovac

Dvorana kod Bukovičke banje, holding 4 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mermerari Aranđelovac's wins match its points

−0.3 wins

Mermerari Aranđelovac's points say about 12 wins in 15 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

12.3Points say

90.9Scored a game

81.7Allowed a game

+9.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 363
Points allowed	1 225
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8988
To the power of 14	0.2244
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2244)	81.67%
× 15 games played	12.25
Wins the points say	12.3 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	−0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mermerari Aranđelovac won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

57.5 %

Mermerari Aranđelovac shoot 57.5 % effective. The league shoots 53.8 %. That is 1st of 16.

MEA 57.5 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Mermerari Aranđelovac: (479 + ½ × 179) ÷ 988	57.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

A strong attack

118.0

Mermerari Aranđelovac score 118.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 111.4. That is 2nd of 16.

MEA 118.0

League 111.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 363 points ÷ 1 155 possessions	118.0
League mean, 16 clubs	111.4
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Strength

A solid defence

105.9

Mermerari Aranđelovac let in 105.9 per 100 trips against the league's 111.4. Lower is better: 2nd of 16.

MEA 105.9

League 111.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 225 allowed ÷ 1 157 possessions	105.9
League mean, 16 clubs	111.4
Rank, 16 clubs	2nd of 16

Best shot-maker

Luka Chauvin

#30 · SF

40/86shots

108points

+14.4vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 86, 28 of them threes	40/86
Points: 2 × 40 + 28	108
His shots are worth (expected)	93.6
Above expected	108 − 93.6 = +14.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 16

MEA 57.5 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Mermerari Aranđelovac: (479 + ½ × 179) ÷ 988	57.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 16

MEA 17.5 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Mermerari Aranđelovac: 202 ÷ 1 155 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	10th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 16

MEA 27.3 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Mermerari Aranđelovac: 137 ÷ (137 + 364)	27.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 16

MEA 30.4 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Mermerari Aranđelovac: 300 tries ÷ 988 shots	30.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.9

Over 7 games Mermerari Aranđelovac's shots were worth 511.1 points and they scored 528 from the floor: 2.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 222 + 84	528
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	511.1
Shot-making	+16.9
A game	+2.42

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Mermerari Aranđelovac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	12	0.67	8.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	5	0.67	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	10	0.74	7.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 204 league shots	10	0.90	9.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	4	0.84	3.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 418 league shots	26	0.74	19.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	2	0.72	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	5	0.72	3.6
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 033 league shots	74	1.26	93.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 387 league shots	25	1.41	35.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Post-up59 % of 227 league shots	15	1.17	17.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 212 league shots	13	1.33	17.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	3	1.33	4.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	8	1.33	10.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	1	1.33	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	7	1.27	8.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	2	1.27	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	1	1.27	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	5	1.01	5.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 721	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 535 league shots	128	1.07	136.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 248 league shots	22	1.11	24.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 255 league shots	24	1.11	26.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 067	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Pull-up35 % of 321 league shots	26	1.05	27.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	8	0.99	7.9
Total adds up	470	1.09	511.1

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Where Mermerari Aranđelovac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

470 of 470 shots shown

47.2%

222 of 470 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 109 / 166 66% · avg 2.0 ft 71 of the 109 makes assisted league 63% 218pts

MID 29 / 83 35% · avg 14.7 ft 17 of the 29 makes assisted league 38% 58pts

THREE 84 / 221 38% · avg 25.3 ft 79 of the 84 makes assisted league 35% 252pts

222 of 470 from the floor, 528 points, + 110 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

167 of 222 makes were assisted (75%): 71 + 17 + 79.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mermerari Aranđelovac

35% 18% 47%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mermerari Aranđelovac

29% 46% 17%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Mermerari Aranđelovac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	138 drives + 35 post-ups + 217 catch and shoot + 80 pull-ups = 470

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Luka Chauvin SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/86 shots 93.6 expected 108 scored ▲ +14.4

Ljubiša Pogačar PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

48/97 shots 105.4 expected 116 scored ▲ +10.6

Luc Gaudin Injured PF 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/73 shots 83.6 expected 89 scored ▲ +5.4

Radoje Jelić SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/79 shots 87.7 expected 92 scored ▲ +4.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.