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Mermerciler Bilecik

Founded 1986 in Bilecik

Karasu Vadisi Salonu, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mermerciler Bilecik's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Mermerciler Bilecik's points say about 9 wins in 18 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

9.2Points say

78.1Scored a game

77.9Allowed a game

+0.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 406
Points allowed	1 402
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9972
To the power of 14	0.9609
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9609)	51.00%
× 18 games played	9.18
Wins the points say	9.2 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mermerciler Bilecik won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.8 %

Mermerciler Bilecik give it away on 17.8 % of trips against the league's 16.9 %. Fewer is better: 9th of 10.

MEB 17.8 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: 236 ÷ 1 328 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

51.7 %

Mermerciler Bilecik shoot 51.7 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 3rd of 10.

MEB 51.7 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: (501 + ½ × 196) ÷ 1 159	51.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.7

Mermerciler Bilecik attempt 24.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.0, so 4th of 10.

MEB 24.7 %

League 24.0 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: 286 tries ÷ 1 159 shots	24.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	24.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Best shot-maker

Sarantis Rakić

#21 · SG

62/121shots

153points

+34.9vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 121, 29 of them threes	62/121
Points: 2 × 62 + 29	153
His shots are worth (expected)	118.1
Above expected	153 − 118.1 = +34.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 10

MEB 51.7 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: (501 + ½ × 196) ÷ 1 159	51.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 10

MEB 17.8 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: 236 ÷ 1 328 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 10

MEB 26.1 %

League 26.6 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: 166 ÷ (166 + 469)	26.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	5th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 10

MEB 24.7 %

League 24.0 %

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: 286 tries ÷ 1 159 shots	24.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	24.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+24.5

Over 8 games Mermerciler Bilecik's shots were worth 494.5 points and they scored 519 from the floor: 3.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+24.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 217 + 85	519
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	494.5
Shot-making	+24.5
A game	+3.06

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Mermerciler Bilecik
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	11	0.72	7.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	9	0.67	6.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 149	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	10	0.75	7.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	2	0.75	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 363 league shots	25	0.62	15.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	5	0.61	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	11	0.61	6.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 484	2	0.61	1.2
Rim · Drive58 % of 797 league shots	79	1.17	92.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 249 league shots	28	1.25	35.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 222	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	21	1.19	24.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 204	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	12	1.25	15.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	7	1.25	8.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 234	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 757	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	11	0.99	10.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	5	0.99	5.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 166	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 234 league shots	130	0.99	128.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 218 league shots	18	0.85	15.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	24	0.97	23.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 675	5	0.97	4.8
Three · Pull-up35 % of 272 league shots	29	1.06	30.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 362	3	1.06	3.2
Total adds up	493	1.00	494.5

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Where Mermerciler Bilecik shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

493 of 493 shots shown

44.0%

217 of 493 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 102 / 172 59% · avg 1.9 ft 56 of the 102 makes assisted league 61% 204pts

MID 30 / 88 34% · avg 14.4 ft 10 of the 30 makes assisted league 37% 60pts

THREE 85 / 233 37% · avg 25.0 ft 73 of the 85 makes assisted league 33% 255pts

217 of 493 from the floor, 519 points, + 93 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

139 of 217 makes were assisted (64%): 56 + 10 + 73.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mermerciler Bilecik

35% 18% 47%

League

35% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mermerciler Bilecik

32% 43% 16%

League

32% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Mermerciler Bilecik: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	159 drives + 39 post-ups + 214 catch and shoot + 81 pull-ups = 493

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Sarantis Rakić SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/121 shots 118.1 expected 153 scored ▲ +34.9

Gaetano Losada SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/56 shots 54.6 expected 55 scored ▲ +0.4

Elias Greene PF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

49/116 shots 120.6 expected 115 scored ▼ −5.6

Furkan Bolat SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

19/57 shots 55.4 expected 44 scored ▼ −11.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.