Manage a club, start free

Mesari Velika Plana

Founded 1980 in Velika Plana

Dvorana kod Pokajnice, holding 2 000

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Ahead of its points

Mesari Velika Plana's wins run ahead of its points

+2.2 wins

Mesari Velika Plana's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little kind.

6Wins so far

3.8Points say

73.3Scored a game

78.2Allowed a game

−4.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	953
Points allowed	1 016
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0661
To the power of 14	2.4503
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.4503)	28.98%
× 13 games played	3.77
Wins the points say	3.8 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+2.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mesari Velika Plana won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

Few trips to the line

21.3

Mesari Velika Plana attempt 21.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.1, so 13th of 14.

MVP 21.3 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: 180 tries ÷ 847 shots	21.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

99.3

Mesari Velika Plana score 99.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.6. That is 12th of 14.

MVP 99.3

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 953 points ÷ 960 possessions	99.3
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.2 %

Mesari Velika Plana shoot 48.2 % effective. The league shoots 50.3 %. That is 12th of 14.

MVP 48.2 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: (356 + ½ × 105) ÷ 847	48.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Saverio Flores

#63 · SF

25/51shots

59points

+5.4vs expected

How we counted it

25 made of 51, 9 of them threes	25/51
Points: 2 × 25 + 9	59
His shots are worth (expected)	53.6
Above expected	59 − 53.6 = +5.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 14

MVP 48.2 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: (356 + ½ × 105) ÷ 847	48.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

MVP 17.4 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: 167 ÷ 960 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 14

MVP 22.9 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: 107 ÷ (107 + 361)	22.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 14

MVP 21.3 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: 180 tries ÷ 847 shots	21.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−19.7

Over 6 games Mesari Velika Plana's shots were worth 411.7 points and they scored 392 from the floor: 3.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−19.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 172 + 48	392
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	411.7
Shot-making	−19.7
A game	−3.29

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Mesari Velika Plana
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 224 league shots	12	0.69	8.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	7	0.71	5.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	16	0.86	13.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 391 league shots	25	0.72	17.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	5	0.69	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	5	0.69	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	3	0.69	2.1
Rim · Drive60 % of 819 league shots	72	1.19	85.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	18	1.20	21.6
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 267 league shots	16	1.20	19.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	18	1.21	21.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	6	1.21	7.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	7	1.18	8.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	2	1.18	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	5	1.21	6.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 218 league shots	96	0.98	93.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 202 league shots	20	1.02	20.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	10	0.97	9.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	27	0.97	26.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	2	1.00	2.0
Total adds up	406	1.01	411.7

⁠

Where Mesari Velika Plana shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

406 of 406 shots shown

42.4%

172 of 406 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 101 / 157 64% · avg 2.0 ft 57 of the 101 makes assisted league 61% 202pts

MID 23 / 83 28% · avg 14.3 ft 12 of the 23 makes assisted league 37% 46pts

THREE 48 / 166 29% · avg 25.3 ft 39 of the 48 makes assisted league 32% 144pts

172 of 406 from the floor, 392 points, + 66 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

108 of 172 makes were assisted (63%): 57 + 12 + 39.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mesari Velika Plana

39% 20% 41%

League

35% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mesari Velika Plana

33% 9% 39% 19%

League

33% 41% 19%

Mesari Velika Plana lean on post-ups: 9.4 % of its shots against the league's 6.8 %.

How we counted it

Mesari Velika Plana: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	132 drives + 38 post-ups + 160 catch and shoot + 76 pull-ups = 406

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Saverio Flores SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/51 shots 53.6 expected 59 scored ▲ +5.4

Ermanno Llorente PG 32 y

Strong61–80

Age: 32
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/77 shots 77.3 expected 78 scored ▲ +0.7

Vlado Austin SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

36/85 shots 88.5 expected 80 scored ▼ −8.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.