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Metallorychoi Polygyros

Founded 1951 in Polygyros

Gymnastirio tou Cholomonta, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Metallorychoi Polygyros's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Metallorychoi Polygyros's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

4.2Points say

67.5Scored a game

71.2Allowed a game

−3.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	877
Points allowed	925
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0547
To the power of 14	2.1086
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1086)	32.17%
× 13 games played	4.18
Wins the points say	4.2 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Metallorychoi Polygyros won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

94.2

Metallorychoi Polygyros score 94.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.8. That is 14th of 14.

MEP 94.2

League 100.8

How we counted it

100 × 877 points ÷ 931 possessions	94.2
League mean, 14 clubs	100.8
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

46.1 %

Metallorychoi Polygyros shoot 46.1 % effective. The league shoots 48.5 %. That is 14th of 14.

MEP 46.1 %

League 48.5 %

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: (332 + ½ × 112) ÷ 841	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.5 %

Metallorychoi Polygyros give it away on 18.5 % of trips against the league's 15.9 %. Fewer is better: 14th of 14.

MEP 18.5 %

League 15.9 %

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: 172 ÷ 931 possessions	18.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

MEP 46.1 %

League 48.5 %

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: (332 + ½ × 112) ÷ 841	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 14

MEP 18.5 %

League 15.9 %

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: 172 ÷ 931 possessions	18.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

MEP 27.1 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: 134 ÷ (134 + 360)	27.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

MEP 18.8 %

League 21.0 %

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: 158 tries ÷ 841 shots	18.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−21.5

Over 6 games Metallorychoi Polygyros's shots were worth 373.5 points and they scored 352 from the floor: 3.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−21.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 152 + 48	352
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	373.5
Shot-making	−21.5
A game	−3.59

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Metallorychoi Polygyros
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive26 % of 225 league shots	9	0.52	4.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 334	4	0.60	2.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 334	4	0.60	2.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 207	8	0.68	5.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 1 207	1	0.68	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot34 % of 209 league shots	15	0.69	10.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 270	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 347 league shots	24	0.75	18.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 470	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 470	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 470	1	0.72	0.7
Rim · Drive58 % of 967 league shots	65	1.16	75.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 1 448	15	1.16	17.4
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 289 league shots	20	1.22	24.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 1 448	2	1.16	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	12	1.15	13.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	1	1.15	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	1	1.15	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	13	1.15	14.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	1	1.15	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	1	1.15	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	1	1.15	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 918	3	1.15	3.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 286	6	0.93	5.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 286	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 286	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 286	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 411 league shots	107	0.97	103.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 217 league shots	20	0.80	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 821	17	0.95	16.2
Three · Pull-up28 % of 253 league shots	16	0.84	13.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 328	2	0.91	1.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 328	2	0.91	1.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 328	1	0.91	0.9
Total adds up	388	0.96	373.5

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Where Metallorychoi Polygyros shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

388 of 388 shots shown

39.2%

152 of 388 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 76 / 135 56% · avg 2.1 ft 34 of the 76 makes assisted league 59% 152pts

MID 28 / 77 36% · avg 14.5 ft 19 of the 28 makes assisted league 35% 56pts

THREE 48 / 176 27% · avg 25.2 ft 43 of the 48 makes assisted league 32% 144pts

152 of 388 from the floor, 352 points, + 41 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

96 of 152 makes were assisted (63%): 34 + 19 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Metallorychoi Polygyros

35% 20% 45%

League

35% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Metallorychoi Polygyros

33% 46% 15%

League

35% 42% 16%

How we counted it

Metallorychoi Polygyros: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	129 drives + 24 post-ups + 178 catch and shoot + 57 pull-ups = 388

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ermis Knežević SF 26 y

Modest21–40

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/73 shots 70.5 expected 65 scored ▼ −5.5

Diamantis Lekić SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/95 shots 88.1 expected 78 scored ▼ −10.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.