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Mirabelles Metz

Founded 1965 in Metz

Salle de la Seille, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mirabelles Metz's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Mirabelles Metz's points say about 11 wins in 19 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.0Points say

86.7Scored a game

84.8Allowed a game

+1.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 648
Points allowed	1 611
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9775
To the power of 14	0.7277
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7277)	57.88%
× 19 games played	11.00
Wins the points say	11.0 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mirabelles Metz won 0 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

114.7

Mirabelles Metz score 114.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.4. That is 2nd of 20.

MIM 114.7

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 648 points ÷ 1 437 possessions	114.7
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Strength

Hot shooting

56.6 %

Mirabelles Metz shoot 56.6 % effective. The league shoots 52.9 %. That is 2nd of 20.

MIM 56.6 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Mirabelles Metz: (607 + ½ × 182) ÷ 1 233	56.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Weakness

A leaky defence

112.0

Mirabelles Metz let in 112.0 per 100 trips against the league's 109.4. Lower is better: 16th of 20.

MIM 112.0

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 611 allowed ÷ 1 438 possessions	112.0
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Best shot-maker

Luciano Rodrigues

#77 · SG

70/132shots

161points

+18.0vs expected

How we counted it

70 made of 132, 21 of them threes	70/132
Points: 2 × 70 + 21	161
His shots are worth (expected)	143.0
Above expected	161 − 143.0 = +18.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 20

MIM 56.6 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Mirabelles Metz: (607 + ½ × 182) ÷ 1 233	56.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 20

MIM 17.8 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Mirabelles Metz: 256 ÷ 1 437 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 20

MIM 28.0 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Mirabelles Metz: 171 ÷ (171 + 440)	28.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	6th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 20

MIM 27.6 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Mirabelles Metz: 340 tries ÷ 1 233 shots	27.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+27.9

Over 9 games Mirabelles Metz's shots were worth 627.1 points and they scored 655 from the floor: 3.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+27.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 288 + 79	655
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	627.1
Shot-making	+27.9
A game	+3.10

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Mirabelles Metz
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive41 % of 366 league shots	12	0.81	9.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	4	0.82	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Post-up45 % of 284 league shots	28	0.90	25.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	6	0.86	5.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 423 league shots	17	0.86	14.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	4	0.86	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 778 league shots	42	0.80	33.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	11	0.81	8.9
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 750 league shots	94	1.22	114.5
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 299 league shots	23	1.14	26.2
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 624 league shots	36	1.29	46.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 2 775	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Post-up63 % of 427 league shots	24	1.26	30.4
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 361 league shots	18	1.21	21.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	6	1.26	7.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	9	1.26	11.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	7	1.17	8.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	2	1.17	2.3
Three · Drive38 % of 245 league shots	7	1.14	8.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	6	1.08	6.5
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 4 916	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 735 league shots	124	1.03	127.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 423 league shots	23	1.03	23.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 460 league shots	26	1.04	27.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 675	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up35 % of 607 league shots	26	1.04	27.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	7	1.02	7.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	2	1.02	2.0
Total adds up	588	1.07	627.1

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Where Mirabelles Metz shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

588 of 588 shots shown

49.0%

288 of 588 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 149 / 231 65% · avg 2.1 ft 77 of the 149 makes assisted league 62% 298pts

MID 60 / 131 46% · avg 14.0 ft 24 of the 60 makes assisted league 40% 120pts

THREE 79 / 226 35% · avg 25.3 ft 73 of the 79 makes assisted league 35% 237pts

288 of 588 from the floor, 655 points, + 121 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

174 of 288 makes were assisted (60%): 77 + 24 + 73.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mirabelles Metz

39% 22% 38%

League

36% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mirabelles Metz

33% 10% 39% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

Mirabelles Metz lean on post-ups: 10.2 % of its shots against the league's 8.0 %.

How we counted it

Mirabelles Metz: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	195 drives + 60 post-ups + 230 catch and shoot + 103 pull-ups = 588

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Luciano Rodrigues SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

70/132 shots 143.0 expected 161 scored ▲ +18.0

Charilaos Coleman PF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

38/65 shots 67.6 expected 84 scored ▲ +16.4

Amine Merle SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/56 shots 57.3 expected 58 scored ▲ +0.7

Duane Church SF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 1

34/81 shots 87.0 expected 84 scored ▼ −3.0

Rogelio Porras PG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/76 shots 82.2 expected 71 scored ▼ −11.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.