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Misteri Campobasso

Founded 1987 in Campobasso

Palazzetto del Monforte, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Misteri Campobasso's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Misteri Campobasso's points say about 9 wins in 19 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

9.4Points say

76.3Scored a game

76.4Allowed a game

−0.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 449
Points allowed	1 452
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0021
To the power of 14	1.0294
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0294)	49.28%
× 19 games played	9.36
Wins the points say	9.4 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Misteri Campobasso won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

15.3 %

Misteri Campobasso give it away on 15.3 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 20.

MIC 15.3 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: 213 ÷ 1 395 possessions	15.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.3

Misteri Campobasso attempt 24.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.3, so 3rd of 20.

MIC 24.3 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: 308 tries ÷ 1 269 shots	24.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.9 %

Misteri Campobasso shoot 48.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.1 %. That is 16th of 20.

MIC 48.9 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: (533 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 269	48.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Best shot-maker

Tautvilas Domarkas

#39 · SF

33/54shots

72points

+16.4vs expected

How we counted it

33 made of 54, 6 of them threes	33/54
Points: 2 × 33 + 6	72
His shots are worth (expected)	55.6
Above expected	72 − 55.6 = +16.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 16th of 20

MIC 48.9 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: (533 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 269	48.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 20

MIC 15.3 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: 213 ÷ 1 395 possessions	15.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 20

MIC 26.3 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: 189 ÷ (189 + 531)	26.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 20

MIC 24.3 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: 308 tries ÷ 1 269 shots	24.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−47.8

Over 9 games Misteri Campobasso's shots were worth 622.8 points and they scored 575 from the floor: 5.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−47.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 247 + 81	575
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	622.8
Shot-making	−47.8
A game	−5.31

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Misteri Campobasso
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 356 league shots	17	0.77	13.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up36 % of 238 league shots	20	0.71	14.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 343 league shots	19	0.80	15.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 728 league shots	29	0.76	21.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	10	0.73	7.3
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 678 league shots	103	1.18	122.0
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 310 league shots	23	1.14	26.3
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 567 league shots	34	1.25	42.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 640	6	1.19	7.1
Rim · Post-up60 % of 322 league shots	24	1.20	28.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 269 league shots	18	1.27	22.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	6	1.25	7.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	4	1.20	4.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	4	1.06	4.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	4	1.06	4.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 559	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 559	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 720 league shots	135	1.01	136.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 406 league shots	39	0.96	37.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break31 % of 386 league shots	26	0.92	23.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 571	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 504 league shots	23	0.99	22.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	6	0.97	5.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	5	0.97	4.9
Total adds up	607	1.03	622.8

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Where Misteri Campobasso shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

607 of 607 shots shown

40.7%

247 of 607 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 128 / 235 55% · avg 2.0 ft 66 of the 128 makes assisted league 61% 256pts

MID 38 / 122 31% · avg 14.0 ft 21 of the 38 makes assisted league 37% 76pts

THREE 81 / 250 32% · avg 25.2 ft 68 of the 81 makes assisted league 32% 243pts

247 of 607 from the floor, 575 points, + 97 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

155 of 247 makes were assisted (63%): 66 + 21 + 68.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Misteri Campobasso

39% 20% 41%

League

35% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Misteri Campobasso

34% 10% 42% 14%

League

33% 43% 18%

Misteri Campobasso lean on post-ups: 9.6 % of its shots against the league's 6.8 %.

How we counted it

Misteri Campobasso: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	205 drives + 58 post-ups + 256 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 607

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Tautvilas Domarkas SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/54 shots 55.6 expected 72 scored ▲ +16.4

Leonardo Foucher PG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/68 shots 73.6 expected 71 scored ▼ −2.6

Juozas Herold SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/94 shots 95.6 expected 75 scored ▼ −20.6

Gavin Freeman SG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

59/173 shots 175.2 expected 149 scored ▼ −26.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.