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Mlekari Požega

Founded 1957 in Požega

Dvorana na Skrapežu, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mlekari Požega's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Mlekari Požega's points say about 2 wins in 13 league games. It has 2. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

2Wins so far

1.9Points say

70.7Scored a game

80.3Allowed a game

−9.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	919
Points allowed	1 044
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1360
To the power of 14	5.9620
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 5.9620)	14.36%
× 13 games played	1.87
Wins the points say	1.9 adds up

Wins so far	2
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mlekari Požega won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

97.5

Mlekari Požega score 97.5 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.5. That is 14th of 14.

MLP 97.5

League 103.5

How we counted it

100 × 919 points ÷ 943 possessions	97.5
League mean, 14 clubs	103.5
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

110.4

Mlekari Požega let in 110.4 per 100 trips against the league's 103.5. Lower is better: 13th of 14.

MLP 110.4

League 103.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 044 allowed ÷ 946 possessions	110.4
League mean, 14 clubs	103.5
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

20.9 %

Mlekari Požega win back 20.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.4 %. That is 13th of 14.

MLP 20.9 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Mlekari Požega: 98 ÷ (98 + 372)	20.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Best shot-maker

Gustavo Penha

#82 · SG

45/102shots

111points

+13.5vs expected

How we counted it

45 made of 102, 21 of them threes	45/102
Points: 2 × 45 + 21	111
His shots are worth (expected)	97.5
Above expected	111 − 97.5 = +13.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 14

MLP 48.7 %

League 49.8 %

How we counted it

Mlekari Požega: (343 + ½ × 123) ÷ 830	48.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

MLP 16.4 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Mlekari Požega: 155 ÷ 943 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

MLP 20.9 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Mlekari Požega: 98 ÷ (98 + 372)	20.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 14

MLP 19.0 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Mlekari Požega: 158 tries ÷ 830 shots	19.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−7.0

Over 6 games Mlekari Požega's shots were worth 373.0 points and they scored 366 from the floor: 1.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−7.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 157 + 52	366
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	373.0
Shot-making	−7.0
A game	−1.17

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Mlekari Požega
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	11	0.71	7.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	6	0.71	4.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	11	0.73	8.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	14	0.80	11.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up35 % of 353 league shots	33	0.70	23.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	5	0.73	3.6
Rim · Drive59 % of 861 league shots	61	1.18	72.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	14	1.20	16.8
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 296 league shots	21	1.22	25.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	7	1.17	8.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	6	1.17	7.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	7	0.94	6.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 333 league shots	89	0.90	79.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 203 league shots	10	0.92	9.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 228 league shots	16	1.04	16.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 784	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Pull-up32 % of 302 league shots	27	0.97	26.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	1	0.98	1.0
Total adds up	382	0.98	373.0

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Where Mlekari Požega shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

382 of 382 shots shown

41.1%

157 of 382 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 76 / 135 56% · avg 2.1 ft 41 of the 76 makes assisted league 60% 152pts

MID 29 / 89 33% · avg 14.9 ft 13 of the 29 makes assisted league 37% 58pts

THREE 52 / 158 33% · avg 25.3 ft 43 of the 52 makes assisted league 32% 156pts

157 of 382 from the floor, 366 points, + 49 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

97 of 157 makes were assisted (62%): 41 + 13 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mlekari Požega

35% 23% 41%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mlekari Požega

33% 40% 20%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Mlekari Požega: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	127 drives + 26 post-ups + 152 catch and shoot + 77 pull-ups = 382

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gustavo Penha SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 1

45/102 shots 97.5 expected 111 scored ▲ +13.5

Carlos Bolton PG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

35/80 shots 81.5 expected 80 scored ▼ −1.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.