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Mobilieri Pordenone

Founded 1975 in Pordenone

Palazzetto sul Noncello, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Mobilieri Pordenone's wins run ahead of its points

+1.3 wins

Mobilieri Pordenone's points say about 11 wins in 19 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little kind.

12Wins so far

10.7Points say

76.6Scored a game

75.3Allowed a game

+1.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 456
Points allowed	1 430
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9821
To the power of 14	0.7770
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7770)	56.27%
× 19 games played	10.69
Wins the points say	10.7 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mobilieri Pordenone won 6 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

24.4

Mobilieri Pordenone attempt 24.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.3, so 5th of 20.

MOP 24.4 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: 301 tries ÷ 1 236 shots	24.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

Strength

Strong on the glass

26.7 %

Mobilieri Pordenone win back 26.7 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.5 %. That is 7th of 20.

MOP 26.7 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: 178 ÷ (178 + 488)	26.7 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Strength

A strong attack

105.0

Mobilieri Pordenone score 105.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.5. That is 8th of 20.

MOP 105.0

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 456 points ÷ 1 387 possessions	105.0
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	8th of 20

Best shot-maker

Efisio Lucas

#64 · SG

43/89shots

96points

+5.9vs expected

How we counted it

43 made of 89, 10 of them threes	43/89
Points: 2 × 43 + 10	96
His shots are worth (expected)	90.1
Above expected	96 − 90.1 = +5.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 20

MOP 49.9 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: (534 + ½ × 166) ÷ 1 236	49.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 20

MOP 16.9 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: 234 ÷ 1 387 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	9th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 20

MOP 26.7 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: 178 ÷ (178 + 488)	26.7 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 20

MOP 24.4 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: 301 tries ÷ 1 236 shots	24.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−46.6

Over 8 games Mobilieri Pordenone's shots were worth 540.6 points and they scored 494 from the floor: 5.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−46.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 217 + 60	494
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	540.6
Shot-making	−46.6
A game	−5.82

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Mobilieri Pordenone
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 396 league shots	15	0.77	11.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	8	0.77	6.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 242 league shots	19	0.86	16.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	4	0.87	3.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	3	0.87	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 384 league shots	23	0.74	17.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 708 league shots	26	0.73	19.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 663 league shots	83	1.18	98.2
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 261 league shots	16	1.10	17.5
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 547 league shots	25	1.31	32.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 557	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-up61 % of 315 league shots	20	1.21	24.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	7	1.22	8.5
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 233 league shots	12	1.29	15.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	8	1.28	10.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	5	1.22	6.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	5	1.05	5.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 2 721 league shots	123	1.00	123.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 456 league shots	35	0.76	26.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 379 league shots	23	1.04	23.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 611	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Pull-up36 % of 532 league shots	21	1.07	22.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	5	0.99	4.9
Total adds up	534	1.01	540.6

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Where Mobilieri Pordenone shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

596 of 596 shots shown

40.8%

243 of 596 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 124 / 211 59% · avg 2.0 ft 79 of the 124 makes assisted league 60% 248pts

MID 50 / 138 36% · avg 14.3 ft 25 of the 50 makes assisted league 38% 100pts

THREE 69 / 247 28% · avg 25.4 ft 64 of the 69 makes assisted league 33% 207pts

243 of 596 from the floor, 555 points, + 113 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

168 of 243 makes were assisted (69%): 79 + 25 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mobilieri Pordenone

35% 23% 41%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mobilieri Pordenone

31% 10% 46% 13%

League

32% 43% 18%

Mobilieri Pordenone lean on post-ups: 9.9 % of its shots against the league's 7.0 %.

How we counted it

Mobilieri Pordenone: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	163 drives + 53 post-ups + 246 catch and shoot + 72 pull-ups = 534

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Efisio Lucas SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/89 shots 90.1 expected 96 scored ▲ +5.9

Diogenis Durak Injured SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/108 shots 106.5 expected 104 scored ▼ −2.5

Savo Bilotas PF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/101 shots 101.4 expected 76 scored ▼ −25.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.