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Mondine Vercelli

Founded 1966 in Vercelli

Palestra della Sesia, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Mondine Vercelli's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Mondine Vercelli's points say about 10 wins in 13 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

9.5Points say

67.8Scored a game

63.2Allowed a game

+4.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	882
Points allowed	821
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9308
To the power of 14	0.3666
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3666)	73.17%
× 13 games played	9.51
Wins the points say	9.5 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mondine Vercelli won 5 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

88.5

Mondine Vercelli let in 88.5 per 100 trips against the league's 101.0. Lower is better: 1st of 14.

MOV 88.5

League 101.0

How we counted it

100 × 821 allowed ÷ 928 possessions	88.5
League mean, 14 clubs	101.0
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

95.1

Mondine Vercelli score 95.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 101.0. That is 13th of 14.

MOV 95.1

League 101.0

How we counted it

100 × 882 points ÷ 927 possessions	95.1
League mean, 14 clubs	101.0
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

16.2 %

Mondine Vercelli give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 15.2 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 14.

MOV 16.2 %

League 15.2 %

How we counted it

Mondine Vercelli: 150 ÷ 927 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Costantino Romero

#46 · SF

24/58shots

58points

+2.3vs expected

How we counted it

24 made of 58, 10 of them threes	24/58
Points: 2 × 24 + 10	58
His shots are worth (expected)	55.7
Above expected	58 − 55.7 = +2.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 14

MOV 45.8 %

League 47.9 %

How we counted it

Mondine Vercelli: (323 + ½ × 111) ÷ 827	45.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 14

MOV 16.2 %

League 15.2 %

How we counted it

Mondine Vercelli: 150 ÷ 927 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 14

MOV 24.8 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Mondine Vercelli: 123 ÷ (123 + 372)	24.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 14

MOV 22.5 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Mondine Vercelli: 186 tries ÷ 827 shots	22.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−5.6

Over 6 games Mondine Vercelli's shots were worth 358.6 points and they scored 353 from the floor: 0.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−5.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 152 + 49	353
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	358.6
Shot-making	−5.6
A game	−0.93

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Mondine Vercelli
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive35 % of 222 league shots	16	0.69	11.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 325	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 325	5	0.69	3.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 325	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 308	9	0.70	6.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 308	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 234 league shots	18	0.67	12.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 299	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 299	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 414 league shots	27	0.73	19.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 543	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 543	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 543	1	0.70	0.7
Rim · Drive55 % of 842 league shots	60	1.10	66.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 261	3	1.14	3.4
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 239 league shots	22	1.23	27.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 261	3	1.14	3.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	9	1.14	10.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	6	1.14	6.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	3	1.14	3.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	5	1.14	5.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	6	1.14	6.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 670	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 439	8	0.95	7.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 439	1	0.95	0.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 439	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 428 league shots	95	0.97	92.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 252 league shots	15	0.87	13.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 893	13	0.95	12.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 893	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	17	0.96	16.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 383	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 383	4	0.99	3.9
Total adds up	377	0.95	358.6

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Where Mondine Vercelli shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

377 of 377 shots shown

40.3%

152 of 377 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 74 / 122 61% · avg 1.9 ft 39 of the 74 makes assisted league 58% 148pts

MID 29 / 97 30% · avg 14.5 ft 14 of the 29 makes assisted league 37% 58pts

THREE 49 / 158 31% · avg 25.2 ft 43 of the 49 makes assisted league 31% 147pts

152 of 377 from the floor, 353 points, + 73 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

96 of 152 makes were assisted (63%): 39 + 14 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mondine Vercelli

32% 26% 42%

League

31% 24% 45%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mondine Vercelli

32% 43% 18%

League

32% 43% 19%

How we counted it

Mondine Vercelli: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	122 drives + 24 post-ups + 163 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 377

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Costantino Romero SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/58 shots 55.7 expected 58 scored ▲ +2.3

Giancarlo Ordóñez SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/69 shots 63.5 expected 59 scored ▼ −4.5

Giampaolo Eser SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/86 shots 80.8 expected 71 scored ▼ −9.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.