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Montanari Potenza

Founded 1965 in Potenza

Palazzetto del Basento, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Montanari Potenza's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Montanari Potenza's points say about 5 wins in 19 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.4Points say

74.7Scored a game

79.7Allowed a game

−5.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 419
Points allowed	1 515
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0677
To the power of 14	2.5005
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.5005)	28.57%
× 19 games played	5.43
Wins the points say	5.4 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Montanari Potenza won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

107.5

Montanari Potenza let in 107.5 per 100 trips against the league's 103.9. Lower is better: 18th of 20.

MOP 107.5

League 103.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 515 allowed ÷ 1 409 possessions	107.5
League mean, 20 clubs	103.9
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.4 %

Montanari Potenza give it away on 17.4 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 17th of 20.

MOP 17.4 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Montanari Potenza: 244 ÷ 1 406 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Weakness

A thin attack

100.9

Montanari Potenza score 100.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.9. That is 16th of 20.

MOP 100.9

League 103.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 419 points ÷ 1 406 possessions	100.9
League mean, 20 clubs	103.9
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Best shot-maker

Cosme Amador

#13 · SG

56/115shots

132points

+14.9vs expected

How we counted it

56 made of 115, 20 of them threes	56/115
Points: 2 × 56 + 20	132
His shots are worth (expected)	117.1
Above expected	132 − 117.1 = +14.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 20

MOP 49.8 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Montanari Potenza: (529 + ½ × 192) ÷ 1 254	49.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	12th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 17th of 20

MOP 17.4 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Montanari Potenza: 244 ÷ 1 406 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 15th of 20

MOP 24.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Montanari Potenza: 174 ÷ (174 + 524)	24.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 16th of 20

MOP 20.1 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Montanari Potenza: 252 tries ÷ 1 254 shots	20.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+6.5

Over 8 games Montanari Potenza's shots were worth 519.5 points and they scored 526 from the floor: 0.8 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+6.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 223 + 80	526
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	519.5
Shot-making	+6.5
A game	+0.81

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Montanari Potenza
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 356 league shots	19	0.77	14.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up36 % of 238 league shots	10	0.71	7.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 343 league shots	15	0.80	12.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 728 league shots	27	0.76	20.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	11	0.73	8.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	4	0.73	2.9
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 678 league shots	73	1.18	86.5
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 310 league shots	16	1.14	18.3
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 567 league shots	23	1.25	28.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 640	6	1.19	7.1
Rim · Post-up60 % of 322 league shots	14	1.20	16.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 269 league shots	8	1.27	10.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	5	1.25	6.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	4	1.20	4.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	14	1.06	14.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 559	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 720 league shots	146	1.01	147.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 406 league shots	19	0.96	18.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break31 % of 386 league shots	26	0.92	23.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 571	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 504 league shots	29	0.99	28.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	5	0.97	4.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	3	0.97	2.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	1	0.97	1.0
Total adds up	513	1.01	519.5

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Where Montanari Potenza shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

577 of 577 shots shown

43.3%

250 of 577 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 113 / 178 64% · avg 2.1 ft 62 of the 113 makes assisted league 61% 226pts

MID 50 / 115 44% · avg 13.6 ft 19 of the 50 makes assisted league 37% 100pts

THREE 87 / 284 31% · avg 25.4 ft 76 of the 87 makes assisted league 32% 261pts

250 of 577 from the floor, 587 points, + 81 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

157 of 250 makes were assisted (63%): 62 + 19 + 76.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Montanari Potenza

31% 20% 50%

League

35% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Montanari Potenza

32% 44% 17%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Montanari Potenza: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	163 drives + 34 post-ups + 227 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 513

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Cosme Amador SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

56/115 shots 117.1 expected 132 scored ▲ +14.9

Fabio Šarić SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

23/50 shots 51.4 expected 54 scored ▲ +2.6

Ascanio Chevallier PG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/53 shots 53.3 expected 52 scored ▼ −1.3

Hugh Penrose SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/66 shots 66.5 expected 55 scored ▼ −11.5

Nicola Bermejo PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/71 shots 69.6 expected 54 scored ▼ −15.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.