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Montañeses Jaca

Founded 1983 in Jaca

Pabellón de la Ciudadela, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Montañeses Jaca's wins trail its points

−1.0 wins

Montañeses Jaca's points say about 10 wins in 13 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.0Points say

78.4Scored a game

71.8Allowed a game

+6.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 019
Points allowed	934
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9166
To the power of 14	0.2954
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2954)	77.20%
× 13 games played	10.04
Wins the points say	10.0 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Montañeses Jaca won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

13.6 %

Montañeses Jaca give it away on 13.6 % of trips against the league's 16.0 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 14.

MJA 13.6 %

League 16.0 %

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: 127 ÷ 937 possessions	13.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

23.9

Montañeses Jaca attempt 23.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 20.7, so 1st of 14.

MJA 23.9 %

League 20.7 %

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: 208 tries ÷ 872 shots	23.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A strong attack

108.8

Montañeses Jaca score 108.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.6. That is 3rd of 14.

MJA 108.8

League 99.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 019 points ÷ 937 possessions	108.8
League mean, 14 clubs	99.6
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Daniel Figueroa

#61 · SG

46/93shots

108points

+19.5vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 93, 16 of them threes	46/93
Points: 2 × 46 + 16	108
His shots are worth (expected)	88.5
Above expected	108 − 88.5 = +19.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 14

MJA 50.5 %

League 48.1 %

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: (385 + ½ × 111) ÷ 872	50.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 14

MJA 13.6 %

League 16.0 %

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: 127 ÷ 937 possessions	13.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 14

MJA 26.2 %

League 24.2 %

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: 127 ÷ (127 + 357)	26.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

MJA 23.9 %

League 20.7 %

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: 208 tries ÷ 872 shots	23.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+13.1

Over 6 games Montañeses Jaca's shots were worth 388.9 points and they scored 402 from the floor: 2.2 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+13.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 176 + 50	402
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	388.9
Shot-making	+13.1
A game	+2.18

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Montañeses Jaca
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive35 % of 226 league shots	18	0.69	12.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 305	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 305	4	0.70	2.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 212	19	0.73	13.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 212	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	20	0.75	14.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	3	0.75	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 249	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 414 league shots	24	0.72	17.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 528	4	0.71	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 528	2	0.71	1.4
Rim · Drive55 % of 880 league shots	76	1.11	84.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 1 349	15	1.13	16.9
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 282 league shots	14	1.18	16.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 1 349	2	1.13	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	12	1.14	13.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	16	1.14	18.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	8	1.14	9.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	4	1.14	4.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 778	3	1.14	3.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 371	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 371	3	0.95	2.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 371	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 368 league shots	90	0.95	85.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 232 league shots	23	0.80	18.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 819	11	0.93	10.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 819	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Pull-up33 % of 305 league shots	20	1.00	20.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 403	2	1.03	2.1
Total adds up	407	0.96	388.9

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Where Montañeses Jaca shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

407 of 407 shots shown

43.2%

176 of 407 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 89 / 154 58% · avg 1.9 ft 43 of the 89 makes assisted league 59% 178pts

MID 37 / 98 38% · avg 14.0 ft 19 of the 37 makes assisted league 36% 74pts

THREE 50 / 155 32% · avg 25.2 ft 41 of the 50 makes assisted league 31% 150pts

176 of 407 from the floor, 402 points, + 73 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

103 of 176 makes were assisted (59%): 43 + 19 + 41.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Montañeses Jaca

38% 24% 38%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Montañeses Jaca

33% 9% 44% 14%

League

33% 42% 19%

Montañeses Jaca lean on post-ups: 9.1 % of its shots against the league's 6.0 %.

How we counted it

Montañeses Jaca: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	136 drives + 37 post-ups + 179 catch and shoot + 55 pull-ups = 407

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Daniel Figueroa SG 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

46/93 shots 88.5 expected 108 scored ▲ +19.5

Devin Clayton PF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

28/67 shots 64.1 expected 67 scored ▲ +2.9

Leopoldo Ferreira SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

19/66 shots 61.2 expected 46 scored ▼ −15.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.