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Morčići Rijeka

Founded 1947 in Rijeka

Dvorana na Rječini, holding 10 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Morčići Rijeka's wins match its points

−0.5 wins

Morčići Rijeka's points say about 5 wins in 22 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.5Points say

82.6Scored a game

89.5Allowed a game

−6.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 818
Points allowed	1 968
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0825
To the power of 14	3.0341
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.0341)	24.79%
× 22 games played	5.45
Wins the points say	5.5 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Morčići Rijeka won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

53.2 %

Morčići Rijeka shoot 53.2 % effective. The league shoots 56.0 %. That is 12th of 12.

MOR 53.2 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Morčići Rijeka: (641 + ½ × 213) ÷ 1 404	53.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

108.2

Morčići Rijeka score 108.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 113.9. That is 11th of 12.

MOR 108.2

League 113.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 818 points ÷ 1 680 possessions	108.2
League mean, 12 clubs	113.9
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

A leaky defence

117.1

Morčići Rijeka let in 117.1 per 100 trips against the league's 113.9. Lower is better: 11th of 12.

MOR 117.1

League 113.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 968 allowed ÷ 1 681 possessions	117.1
League mean, 12 clubs	113.9
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Best shot-maker

Sven Dreyer

#10 · SF

41/68shots

97points

+19.8vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 68, 15 of them threes	41/68
Points: 2 × 41 + 15	97
His shots are worth (expected)	77.2
Above expected	97 − 77.2 = +19.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 12

MOR 53.2 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Morčići Rijeka: (641 + ½ × 213) ÷ 1 404	53.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 12

MOR 19.8 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Morčići Rijeka: 332 ÷ 1 680 possessions	19.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 12

MOR 28.0 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Morčići Rijeka: 206 ÷ (206 + 530)	28.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 12

MOR 32.1 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Morčići Rijeka: 450 tries ÷ 1 404 shots	32.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−33.1

Over 11 games Morčići Rijeka's shots were worth 749.1 points and they scored 716 from the floor: 3.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−33.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 305 + 106	716
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	749.1
Shot-making	−33.1
A game	−3.01

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Morčići Rijeka
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 224 league shots	15	0.76	11.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	7	0.74	5.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	11	0.78	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 244 league shots	22	0.85	18.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 541 league shots	39	0.85	33.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	11	0.86	9.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	1	0.86	0.9
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 269 league shots	110	1.22	133.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	19	1.22	23.2
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 502 league shots	50	1.29	64.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Post-up58 % of 322 league shots	30	1.17	35.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 307 league shots	17	1.27	21.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	5	1.29	6.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	7	1.08	7.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	1	1.08	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	6	1.08	6.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	9	1.10	9.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	3	1.10	3.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	3	1.10	3.3
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 837 league shots	162	1.14	185.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 280 league shots	30	1.04	31.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 363 league shots	33	1.25	41.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 2 557	8	1.15	9.2
Three · Pull-up39 % of 420 league shots	26	1.16	30.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	7	1.12	7.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	5	1.12	5.6
Total adds up	670	1.12	749.1

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Where Morčići Rijeka shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

670 of 670 shots shown

45.5%

305 of 670 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 158 / 264 60% · avg 2.0 ft 101 of the 158 makes assisted league 63% 316pts

MID 41 / 120 34% · avg 14.6 ft 18 of the 41 makes assisted league 41% 82pts

THREE 106 / 286 37% · avg 25.3 ft 98 of the 106 makes assisted league 38% 318pts

305 of 670 from the floor, 716 points, + 171 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

217 of 305 makes were assisted (71%): 101 + 18 + 98.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Morčići Rijeka

39% 18% 43%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Morčići Rijeka

34% 43% 16%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Morčići Rijeka: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	225 drives + 51 post-ups + 286 catch and shoot + 108 pull-ups = 670

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Sven Dreyer SF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

41/68 shots 77.2 expected 97 scored ▲ +19.8

Ljubomir Marjanović SF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

59/113 shots 127.0 expected 143 scored ▲ +16.0

Stergios Jocić PF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

52/107 shots 119.8 expected 123 scored ▲ +3.2

Vjekoslav Šemrov SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/80 shots 92.4 expected 87 scored ▼ −5.4

Dražen Domazet PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/81 shots 92.6 expected 79 scored ▼ −13.6

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Tihomir Petrović PG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

24/69 shots 74.4 expected 50 scored ▼ −24.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.