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Moutardiers Dijon

Founded 1938 in Dijon

Salle de l'Ouche, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Moutardiers Dijon's wins run ahead of its points

+1.5 wins

Moutardiers Dijon's points say about 8 wins in 19 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little kind.

9Wins so far

7.5Points say

83.5Scored a game

86.0Allowed a game

−2.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 586
Points allowed	1 634
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0303
To the power of 14	1.5180
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5180)	39.71%
× 19 games played	7.55
Wins the points say	7.5 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Moutardiers Dijon won 4 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

114.1

Moutardiers Dijon let in 114.1 per 100 trips against the league's 109.4. Lower is better: 20th of 20.

MOD 114.1

League 109.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 634 allowed ÷ 1 432 possessions	114.1
League mean, 20 clubs	109.4
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Strength

Hot shooting

54.8 %

Moutardiers Dijon shoot 54.8 % effective. The league shoots 52.9 %. That is 3rd of 20.

MOD 54.8 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: (574 + ½ × 214) ÷ 1 243	54.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.5 %

Moutardiers Dijon win back 22.5 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.3 %. That is 17th of 20.

MOD 22.5 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: 145 ÷ (145 + 499)	22.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Best shot-maker

Yann Iyamu

#61 · SF

28/52shots

70points

+14.9vs expected

How we counted it

28 made of 52, 14 of them threes	28/52
Points: 2 × 28 + 14	70
His shots are worth (expected)	55.1
Above expected	70 − 55.1 = +14.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 20

MOD 54.8 %

League 52.9 %

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: (574 + ½ × 214) ÷ 1 243	54.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.9 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 20

MOD 16.3 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: 232 ÷ 1 427 possessions	16.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 17th of 20

MOD 22.5 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: 145 ÷ (145 + 499)	22.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 20

MOD 24.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: 298 tries ÷ 1 243 shots	24.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+30.2

Over 9 games Moutardiers Dijon's shots were worth 608.8 points and they scored 639 from the floor: 3.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+30.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 267 + 105	639
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	608.8
Shot-making	+30.2
A game	+3.36

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Moutardiers Dijon
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive41 % of 366 league shots	16	0.81	13.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	6	0.82	4.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 541	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up45 % of 284 league shots	7	0.90	6.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 356	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 423 league shots	23	0.86	19.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 552	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 778 league shots	32	0.80	25.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	7	0.81	5.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	7	0.81	5.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 1 063	1	0.81	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 750 league shots	79	1.22	96.2
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 299 league shots	21	1.14	23.9
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 624 league shots	34	1.29	43.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 2 775	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up63 % of 427 league shots	9	1.26	11.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 361 league shots	13	1.21	15.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	7	1.26	8.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 573	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	4	1.17	4.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 259	3	1.17	3.5
Three · Drive38 % of 245 league shots	18	1.14	20.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 366	6	1.08	6.5
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 4 916	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 4 916	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 735 league shots	160	1.03	164.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 423 league shots	11	1.03	11.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 460 league shots	30	1.04	31.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 675	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up35 % of 607 league shots	37	1.04	38.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	8	1.02	8.2
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 842	2	1.02	2.0
Total adds up	575	1.06	608.8

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Where Moutardiers Dijon shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

575 of 575 shots shown

46.4%

267 of 575 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 120 / 184 65% · avg 2.0 ft 61 of the 120 makes assisted league 62% 240pts

MID 42 / 109 39% · avg 14.8 ft 31 of the 42 makes assisted league 40% 84pts

THREE 105 / 282 37% · avg 25.1 ft 94 of the 105 makes assisted league 35% 315pts

267 of 575 from the floor, 639 points, + 116 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

186 of 267 makes were assisted (70%): 61 + 31 + 94.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Moutardiers Dijon

32% 19% 49%

League

36% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Moutardiers Dijon

32% 44% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Moutardiers Dijon: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	186 drives + 28 post-ups + 255 catch and shoot + 106 pull-ups = 575

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Yann Iyamu SF 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/52 shots 55.1 expected 70 scored ▲ +14.9

Yanis Marchal SF 35 y

Solid41–60

Age: 35
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

50/102 shots 108.4 expected 119 scored ▲ +10.6

Théo Lamy SG 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

31/65 shots 69.7 expected 79 scored ▲ +9.3

Augustin Adedayo SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

51/111 shots 114.7 expected 121 scored ▲ +6.3

Gaspard Salawu PF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/62 shots 67.2 expected 69 scored ▲ +1.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.