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Mozzarelle Battipaglia

Founded 1986 in Battipaglia

Palestra del Tusciano, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Mozzarelle Battipaglia's wins trail its points

−1.6 wins

Mozzarelle Battipaglia's points say about 11 wins in 13 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.6Points say

75.3Scored a game

67.6Allowed a game

+7.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	979
Points allowed	879
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8979
To the power of 14	0.2213
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2213)	81.88%
× 13 games played	10.64
Wins the points say	10.6 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Mozzarelle Battipaglia won 0 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

93.2

Mozzarelle Battipaglia let in 93.2 per 100 trips against the league's 102.2. Lower is better: 1st of 14.

MOB 93.2

League 102.2

How we counted it

100 × 879 allowed ÷ 943 possessions	93.2
League mean, 14 clubs	102.2
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

46.9 %

Mozzarelle Battipaglia shoot 46.9 % effective. The league shoots 48.8 %. That is 12th of 14.

MOB 46.9 %

League 48.8 %

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: (365 + ½ × 91) ÷ 875	46.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

29.9 %

Mozzarelle Battipaglia win back 29.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.1 %. That is 3rd of 14.

MOB 29.9 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: 147 ÷ (147 + 345)	29.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Daniele Edewor

#59 · PG

24/50shots

53points

+4.7vs expected

How we counted it

24 made of 50, 5 of them threes	24/50
Points: 2 × 24 + 5	53
His shots are worth (expected)	48.3
Above expected	53 − 48.3 = +4.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 14

MOB 46.9 %

League 48.8 %

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: (365 + ½ × 91) ÷ 875	46.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 14

MOB 15.5 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: 147 ÷ 948 possessions	15.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

MOB 29.9 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: 147 ÷ (147 + 345)	29.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 14

MOB 23.7 %

League 20.2 %

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: 207 tries ÷ 875 shots	23.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−26.2

Over 6 games Mozzarelle Battipaglia's shots were worth 389.2 points and they scored 363 from the floor: 4.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−26.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 164 + 35	363
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	389.2
Shot-making	−26.2
A game	−4.36

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Mozzarelle Battipaglia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive32 % of 201 league shots	13	0.65	8.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 309	3	0.65	1.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 309	1	0.65	0.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 224	13	0.69	9.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 224	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 224	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot34 % of 247 league shots	17	0.69	11.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 321	4	0.69	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 321	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up35 % of 335 league shots	19	0.70	13.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 447	4	0.70	2.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 447	7	0.70	4.9
Rim · Drive58 % of 933 league shots	65	1.16	75.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 1 385	18	1.17	21.0
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 256 league shots	29	1.20	34.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 1 385	11	1.17	12.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	14	1.18	16.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	7	1.18	8.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	7	1.18	8.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	3	1.18	3.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 837	1	1.18	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 306	5	0.91	4.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 306	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 306	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 306	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 376 league shots	85	0.90	76.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 262 league shots	17	0.84	14.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 841	14	0.89	12.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 841	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Pull-up31 % of 267 league shots	18	0.93	16.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 338	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 338	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 338	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	402	0.97	389.2

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Where Mozzarelle Battipaglia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

402 of 402 shots shown

40.8%

164 of 402 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 100 / 167 60% · avg 2.0 ft 49 of the 100 makes assisted league 60% 200pts

MID 29 / 86 34% · avg 14.1 ft 9 of the 29 makes assisted league 37% 58pts

THREE 35 / 149 24% · avg 25.2 ft 28 of the 35 makes assisted league 31% 105pts

164 of 402 from the floor, 363 points, + 82 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

86 of 164 makes were assisted (52%): 49 + 9 + 28.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Mozzarelle Battipaglia

42% 21% 37%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Mozzarelle Battipaglia

37% 10% 39% 14%

League

34% 44% 16%

Mozzarelle Battipaglia lean on post-ups: 10.2 % of its shots against the league's 6.5 %.

How we counted it

Mozzarelle Battipaglia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	147 drives + 41 post-ups + 158 catch and shoot + 56 pull-ups = 402

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Daniele Edewor PG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

24/50 shots 48.3 expected 53 scored ▲ +4.7

Taj Pogačar C 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/73 shots 71.9 expected 75 scored ▲ +3.1

Cosme Meléndez SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/50 shots 49.9 expected 49 scored ▼ −0.9

Gianpaolo Heredia SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/69 shots 65.9 expected 57 scored ▼ −8.9

Biagio Parra PG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

18/55 shots 52.3 expected 43 scored ▼ −9.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.