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Muggini Olbia

Founded 1977 in Olbia

Palestra di Pittulongu, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Muggini Olbia's wins run ahead of its points

+1.4 wins

Muggini Olbia's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

5.6Points say

72.7Scored a game

74.2Allowed a game

−1.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	945
Points allowed	964
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0201
To the power of 14	1.3214
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.3214)	43.08%
× 13 games played	5.60
Wins the points say	5.6 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Muggini Olbia won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.1

Muggini Olbia attempt 26.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.0, so 1st of 14.

MUO 26.1 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: 220 tries ÷ 844 shots	26.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

27.1 %

Muggini Olbia win back 27.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 24.9 %. That is 3rd of 14.

MUO 27.1 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: 123 ÷ (123 + 331)	27.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

103.1

Muggini Olbia let in 103.1 per 100 trips against the league's 100.6. Lower is better: 10th of 14.

MUO 103.1

League 100.6

How we counted it

100 × 964 allowed ÷ 935 possessions	103.1
League mean, 14 clubs	100.6
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Ascanio Quiroga

#97 · SG

39/93shots

94points

+8.4vs expected

How we counted it

39 made of 93, 16 of them threes	39/93
Points: 2 × 39 + 16	94
His shots are worth (expected)	85.6
Above expected	94 − 85.6 = +8.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 14

MUO 47.4 %

League 48.3 %

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: (357 + ½ × 86) ÷ 844	47.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 14

MUO 15.8 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: 147 ÷ 933 possessions	15.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

MUO 27.1 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: 123 ÷ (123 + 331)	27.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

MUO 26.1 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: 220 tries ÷ 844 shots	26.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−2.2

Over 6 games Muggini Olbia's shots were worth 377.2 points and they scored 375 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−2.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 167 + 41	375
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	377.2
Shot-making	−2.2
A game	−0.37

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Muggini Olbia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 240 league shots	19	0.73	13.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	4	0.72	2.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	3	0.72	2.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	3	0.72	2.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 326	7	0.77	5.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 326	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 249 league shots	15	0.77	11.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	2	0.76	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 417 league shots	38	0.82	31.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	3	0.80	2.4
Rim · Drive56 % of 919 league shots	67	1.12	74.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 350	14	1.14	16.0
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 249 league shots	16	1.22	19.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 350	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	12	1.14	13.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	10	1.14	11.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	6	1.14	6.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	3	0.93	2.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 431 league shots	96	0.97	92.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 253 league shots	12	0.74	8.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 879	11	0.94	10.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 879	2	0.94	1.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 274 league shots	23	0.89	20.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 341	3	0.89	2.7
Total adds up	393	0.96	377.2

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Where Muggini Olbia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

393 of 393 shots shown

42.5%

167 of 393 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 86 / 134 64% · avg 2.0 ft 45 of the 86 makes assisted league 60% 172pts

MID 40 / 106 38% · avg 14.7 ft 11 of the 40 makes assisted league 38% 80pts

THREE 41 / 153 27% · avg 25.3 ft 32 of the 41 makes assisted league 31% 123pts

167 of 393 from the floor, 375 points, + 67 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

88 of 167 makes were assisted (53%): 45 + 11 + 32.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Muggini Olbia

34% 27% 39%

League

33% 24% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Muggini Olbia

34% 39% 20%

League

33% 44% 17%

How we counted it

Muggini Olbia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	133 drives + 26 post-ups + 154 catch and shoot + 80 pull-ups = 393

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ascanio Quiroga SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/93 shots 85.6 expected 94 scored ▲ +8.4

Eugenio Alonso SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/60 shots 58.8 expected 64 scored ▲ +5.2

Riccardo Fialho PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/92 shots 89.6 expected 87 scored ▼ −2.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.