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Ñandúes General Pico

Founded 1937 in General Pico

Gimnasio de las Vías, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Ñandúes General Pico's wins trail its points

−1.2 wins

Ñandúes General Pico's points say about 7 wins in 15 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little unkind.

6Wins so far

7.2Points say

81.9Scored a game

82.3Allowed a game

−0.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 228
Points allowed	1 234
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0049
To the power of 14	1.0706
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0706)	48.29%
× 15 games played	7.24
Wins the points say	7.2 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	−1.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Ñandúes General Pico won 3 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

51.9 %

Ñandúes General Pico shoot 51.9 % effective. The league shoots 53.6 %. That is 14th of 16.

NGP 51.9 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: (443 + ½ × 140) ÷ 988	51.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.9 %

Ñandúes General Pico give it away on 16.9 % of trips against the league's 17.8 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 16.

NGP 16.9 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: 193 ÷ 1 141 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Strength

A solid defence

108.3

Ñandúes General Pico let in 108.3 per 100 trips against the league's 110.0. Lower is better: 5th of 16.

NGP 108.3

League 110.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 234 allowed ÷ 1 139 possessions	108.3
League mean, 16 clubs	110.0
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Best shot-maker

Igor Nešić

#94 · PG

40/62shots

92points

+25.1vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 62, 12 of them threes	40/62
Points: 2 × 40 + 12	92
His shots are worth (expected)	66.9
Above expected	92 − 66.9 = +25.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 16

NGP 51.9 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: (443 + ½ × 140) ÷ 988	51.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 16

NGP 16.9 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: 193 ÷ 1 141 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 16

NGP 25.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: 135 ÷ (135 + 388)	25.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	7th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 16

NGP 28.0 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: 277 tries ÷ 988 shots	28.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−22.1

Over 6 games Ñandúes General Pico's shots were worth 399.1 points and they scored 377 from the floor: 3.7 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−22.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 167 + 43	377
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	399.1
Shot-making	−22.1
A game	−3.68

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Ñandúes General Pico
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 235 league shots	18	0.83	15.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	9	0.78	7.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot46 % of 204 league shots	11	0.92	10.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 418 league shots	20	0.71	14.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	8	0.72	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	5	0.72	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	4	0.72	2.9
Rim · Drive63 % of 980 league shots	59	1.26	74.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	7	1.25	8.8
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 361 league shots	24	1.26	30.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	7	1.25	8.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	12	1.32	15.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	2	1.32	2.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	2	1.32	2.6
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	1	1.32	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot65 % of 220 league shots	11	1.30	14.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	4	1.26	5.0
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	10	1.04	10.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 520 league shots	70	1.07	74.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 221 league shots	9	0.84	7.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 254 league shots	28	1.06	29.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 025	1	1.05	1.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 294 league shots	20	1.03	20.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	5	0.99	5.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	373	1.07	399.1

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Where Ñandúes General Pico shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

441 of 441 shots shown

44.7%

197 of 441 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 107 / 159 67% · avg 1.9 ft 56 of the 107 makes assisted league 63% 214pts

MID 36 / 101 36% · avg 14.5 ft 14 of the 36 makes assisted league 40% 72pts

THREE 54 / 181 30% · avg 25.5 ft 49 of the 54 makes assisted league 35% 162pts

197 of 441 from the floor, 448 points, + 111 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

119 of 197 makes were assisted (60%): 56 + 14 + 49.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Ñandúes General Pico

37% 22% 40%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Ñandúes General Pico

36% 38% 19%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Ñandúes General Pico: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	134 drives + 27 post-ups + 140 catch and shoot + 72 pull-ups = 373

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Igor Nešić PG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

40/62 shots 66.9 expected 92 scored ▲ +25.1

Liborio Moura SG 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/70 shots 75.5 expected 58 scored ▼ −17.5

Genaro Pallarés SF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

18/56 shots 60.5 expected 41 scored ▼ −19.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.