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Neranzies Sparti

Founded 1943 in Sparti

Gymnastirio tou Taygetou, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Neranzies Sparti's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Neranzies Sparti's points say about 3 wins in 13 league games. It has 3. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

3Wins so far

2.7Points say

71.0Scored a game

78.2Allowed a game

−7.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	923
Points allowed	1 017
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1018
To the power of 14	3.8875
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.8875)	20.46%
× 13 games played	2.66
Wins the points say	2.7 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Neranzies Sparti won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

95.4

Neranzies Sparti score 95.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.1. That is 14th of 14.

NES 95.4

League 104.1

How we counted it

100 × 923 points ÷ 967 possessions	95.4
League mean, 14 clubs	104.1
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.8 %

Neranzies Sparti shoot 45.8 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 14th of 14.

NES 45.8 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: (329 + ½ × 121) ÷ 850	45.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.1 %

Neranzies Sparti win back 22.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.2 %. That is 13th of 14.

NES 22.1 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: 108 ÷ (108 + 381)	22.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Best shot-maker

Ludovico Mendoza

#68 · SG

37/87shots

92points

+9.5vs expected

How we counted it

37 made of 87, 18 of them threes	37/87
Points: 2 × 37 + 18	92
His shots are worth (expected)	82.5
Above expected	92 − 82.5 = +9.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

NES 45.8 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: (329 + ½ × 121) ÷ 850	45.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

NES 16.6 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: 161 ÷ 967 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

NES 22.1 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: 108 ÷ (108 + 381)	22.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 14

NES 22.1 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: 188 tries ÷ 850 shots	22.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−4.4

Over 6 games Neranzies Sparti's shots were worth 360.4 points and they scored 356 from the floor: 0.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−4.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 151 + 54	356
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	360.4
Shot-making	−4.4
A game	−0.73

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Neranzies Sparti
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	19	0.68	12.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	3	0.68	2.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	4	0.68	2.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	7	0.70	4.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	14	0.83	11.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 363 league shots	32	0.66	21.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	4	0.64	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	7	0.64	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	1	0.64	0.6
Rim · Drive58 % of 863 league shots	57	1.16	66.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 329	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 273 league shots	19	1.36	25.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 329	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	9	1.21	10.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	3	1.20	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	9	0.92	8.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	4	0.92	3.7
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 275 league shots	94	0.96	89.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 212 league shots	16	0.95	15.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break25 % of 212 league shots	15	0.75	11.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 732	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 263 league shots	20	0.89	17.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 348	2	0.86	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 348	3	0.86	2.6
Total adds up	378	0.95	360.4

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Where Neranzies Sparti shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

378 of 378 shots shown

39.9%

151 of 378 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 61 / 117 52% · avg 2.0 ft 33 of the 61 makes assisted league 60% 122pts

MID 36 / 96 38% · avg 14.8 ft 18 of the 36 makes assisted league 37% 72pts

THREE 54 / 165 33% · avg 25.1 ft 44 of the 54 makes assisted league 32% 162pts

151 of 378 from the floor, 356 points, + 76 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

95 of 151 makes were assisted (63%): 33 + 18 + 44.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Neranzies Sparti

31% 25% 44%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Neranzies Sparti

33% 41% 20%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Neranzies Sparti: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	125 drives + 22 post-ups + 154 catch and shoot + 77 pull-ups = 378

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ludovico Mendoza SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

37/87 shots 82.5 expected 92 scored ▲ +9.5

Isidoros Bello PG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/64 shots 60.7 expected 62 scored ▲ +1.3

Stylianos Radenković PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

20/52 shots 52.0 expected 49 scored ▼ −3.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.