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Norias Murcia

Founded 1966 in Murcia

Pabellón del Segura, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Norias Murcia's wins match its points

−0.5 wins

Norias Murcia's points say about 12 wins in 17 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.5Points say

91.4Scored a game

86.6Allowed a game

+4.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 553
Points allowed	1 472
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9478
To the power of 14	0.4724
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4724)	67.92%
× 17 games played	11.55
Wins the points say	11.5 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	−0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Norias Murcia won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

111.2

Norias Murcia let in 111.2 per 100 trips against the league's 114.4. Lower is better: 3rd of 18.

NOM 111.2

League 114.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 472 allowed ÷ 1 324 possessions	111.2
League mean, 18 clubs	114.4
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

57.4 %

Norias Murcia shoot 57.4 % effective. The league shoots 56.1 %. That is 4th of 18.

NOM 57.4 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Norias Murcia: (541 + ½ × 178) ÷ 1 098	57.4 %
League mean, 18 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Strength

A strong attack

117.5

Norias Murcia score 117.5 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.4. That is 5th of 18.

NOM 117.5

League 114.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 553 points ÷ 1 322 possessions	117.5
League mean, 18 clubs	114.4
Rank, 18 clubs	5th of 18

Best shot-maker

Pablo Antón

#85 · SG

89/149shots

213points

+49.1vs expected

How we counted it

89 made of 149, 35 of them threes	89/149
Points: 2 × 89 + 35	213
His shots are worth (expected)	163.9
Above expected	213 − 163.9 = +49.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 18

NOM 57.4 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Norias Murcia: (541 + ½ × 178) ÷ 1 098	57.4 %
League mean, 18 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	4th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 18

NOM 19.1 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Norias Murcia: 253 ÷ 1 322 possessions	19.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	9th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 18

NOM 27.3 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Norias Murcia: 143 ÷ (143 + 380)	27.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	9th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 18

NOM 30.6 %

League 31.7 %

How we counted it

Norias Murcia: 336 tries ÷ 1 098 shots	30.6 %
League mean, 18 clubs	31.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+36.6

Over 8 games Norias Murcia's shots were worth 547.4 points and they scored 584 from the floor: 4.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+36.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 248 + 88	584
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	547.4
Shot-making	+36.6
A game	+4.57

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Norias Murcia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 242 league shots	8	0.87	6.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 392	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 392	8	0.78	6.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 392	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 221 league shots	12	0.86	10.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot42 % of 232 league shots	8	0.84	6.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 312	1	0.89	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 312	5	0.89	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up42 % of 612 league shots	36	0.83	30.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 840	4	0.81	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 840	12	0.81	9.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 840	1	0.81	0.8
Rim · Drive64 % of 1 385 league shots	63	1.28	80.8
Rim · Drive · second chance59 % of 217 league shots	13	1.17	15.2
Rim · Drive · fast break69 % of 513 league shots	27	1.37	37.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 2 192	3	1.29	3.9
Rim · Post-up62 % of 351 league shots	11	1.24	13.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 453	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 453	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 384 league shots	21	1.19	25.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 594	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 594	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 594	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 261	13	1.35	17.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 261	3	1.35	4.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 261	5	1.35	6.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	17	1.13	19.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	6	1.13	6.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 672	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 949 league shots	100	1.10	110.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 337 league shots	19	1.03	19.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 383 league shots	25	1.06	26.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 716	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 498 league shots	31	1.13	35.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 676	5	1.08	5.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 676	8	1.08	8.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 676	1	1.08	1.1
Total adds up	494	1.11	547.4

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Where Norias Murcia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

494 of 494 shots shown

50.2%

248 of 494 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 120 / 177 68% · avg 2.1 ft 68 of the 120 makes assisted league 65% 240pts

MID 40 / 101 40% · avg 14.4 ft 16 of the 40 makes assisted league 42% 80pts

THREE 88 / 216 41% · avg 25.2 ft 78 of the 88 makes assisted league 36% 264pts

248 of 494 from the floor, 584 points, + 157 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

162 of 248 makes were assisted (65%): 68 + 16 + 78.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Norias Murcia

36% 20% 44%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Norias Murcia

31% 39% 24%

League

32% 8% 40% 20%

How we counted it

Norias Murcia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	151 drives + 32 post-ups + 192 catch and shoot + 119 pull-ups = 494

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Pablo Antón Star SG 29 y

Elite81–99

Age: 29
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

89/149 shots 163.9 expected 213 scored ▲ +49.1

Alfonso Beck SF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/63 shots 69.7 expected 72 scored ▲ +2.3

Matías Esteves SF 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

28/59 shots 65.5 expected 64 scored ▼ −1.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.