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Olivares La Rioja

Founded 1937 in La Rioja

Gimnasio del Velasco, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Olivares La Rioja's wins trail its points

−2.5 wins

Olivares La Rioja's points say about 14 wins in 22 league games. It has 11. The table has been a little unkind.

11Wins so far

13.5Points say

78.5Scored a game

75.9Allowed a game

+2.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 726
Points allowed	1 669
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9670
To the power of 14	0.6249
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6249)	61.54%
× 22 games played	13.54
Wins the points say	13.5 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	−2.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Olivares La Rioja won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

51.8 %

Olivares La Rioja shoot 51.8 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 2nd of 12.

OLR 51.8 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: (634 + ½ × 200) ÷ 1 418	51.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.9

Olivares La Rioja attempt 26.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.8, so 2nd of 12.

OLR 26.9 %

League 23.8 %

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: 382 tries ÷ 1 418 shots	26.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

A strong attack

107.4

Olivares La Rioja score 107.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.7. That is 3rd of 12.

OLR 107.4

League 103.7

How we counted it

100 × 1 726 points ÷ 1 607 possessions	107.4
League mean, 12 clubs	103.7
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Best shot-maker

José Lemaire

#76 · PG

57/130shots

139points

+9.8vs expected

How we counted it

57 made of 130, 25 of them threes	57/130
Points: 2 × 57 + 25	139
His shots are worth (expected)	129.2
Above expected	139 − 129.2 = +9.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 12

OLR 51.8 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: (634 + ½ × 200) ÷ 1 418	51.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

OLR 15.2 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: 244 ÷ 1 607 possessions	15.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 12

OLR 25.6 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: 194 ÷ (194 + 564)	25.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 12

OLR 26.9 %

League 23.8 %

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: 382 tries ÷ 1 418 shots	26.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+10.2

Over 9 games Olivares La Rioja's shots were worth 587.8 points and they scored 598 from the floor: 1.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+10.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 256 + 86	598
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	587.8
Shot-making	+10.2
A game	+1.13

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Olivares La Rioja
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 276 league shots	18	0.72	13.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	19	0.74	14.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 251 league shots	20	0.80	16.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 504 league shots	25	0.72	18.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 115 league shots	105	1.19	125.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	19	1.23	23.4
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 353 league shots	34	1.37	46.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	8	1.23	9.8
Rim · Post-up63 % of 202 league shots	17	1.26	21.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	13	1.20	15.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	7	1.20	8.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	8	1.22	9.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	10	0.98	9.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	3	0.98	3.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 749 league shots	148	0.99	146.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 257 league shots	17	0.96	16.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 271 league shots	24	1.04	25.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 2 307	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 392 league shots	28	0.96	26.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	2	0.94	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	5	0.94	4.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	1	0.94	0.9
Total adds up	566	1.04	587.8

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Where Olivares La Rioja shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

630 of 630 shots shown

44.6%

281 of 630 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 141 / 251 56% · avg 1.9 ft 76 of the 141 makes assisted league 61% 282pts

MID 47 / 114 41% · avg 14.3 ft 24 of the 47 makes assisted league 37% 94pts

THREE 93 / 265 35% · avg 25.4 ft 76 of the 93 makes assisted league 32% 279pts

281 of 630 from the floor, 655 points, + 131 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

176 of 281 makes were assisted (63%): 76 + 24 + 76.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Olivares La Rioja

39% 18% 43%

League

34% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Olivares La Rioja

37% 42% 13%

League

33% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Olivares La Rioja: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	208 drives + 44 post-ups + 239 catch and shoot + 75 pull-ups = 566

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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José Lemaire PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

57/130 shots 129.2 expected 139 scored ▲ +9.8

Osvaldo Arnold PF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

35/56 shots 62.5 expected 72 scored ▲ +9.5

Gino Teixeira SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/57 shots 56.8 expected 63 scored ▲ +6.2

Boleslovas Anibaba SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/135 shots 141.2 expected 133 scored ▼ −8.2

Ángel Aguilar SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/93 shots 97.5 expected 88 scored ▼ −9.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.