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Olive Ascoli Piceno

Founded 1962 in Ascoli Piceno

Palazzetto del Tronto, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Olive Ascoli Piceno's wins run ahead of its points

+1.7 wins

Olive Ascoli Piceno's points say about 10 wins in 19 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little kind.

12Wins so far

10.3Points say

75.2Scored a game

74.3Allowed a game

+0.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 428
Points allowed	1 411
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9881
To the power of 14	0.8456
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8456)	54.18%
× 19 games played	10.29
Wins the points say	10.3 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Olive Ascoli Piceno won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

14.3 %

Olive Ascoli Piceno give it away on 14.3 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 20.

OAP 14.3 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: 198 ÷ 1 383 possessions	14.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

47.9 %

Olive Ascoli Piceno shoot 47.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.1 %. That is 18th of 20.

OAP 47.9 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: (533 + ½ × 171) ÷ 1 292	47.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Weakness

Few trips to the line

20.5

Olive Ascoli Piceno attempt 20.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.3, so 15th of 20.

OAP 20.5 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: 265 tries ÷ 1 292 shots	20.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

Best shot-maker

Alaattin Günay

#81 · SG

77/159shots

189points

+34.2vs expected

How we counted it

77 made of 159, 35 of them threes	77/159
Points: 2 × 77 + 35	189
His shots are worth (expected)	154.8
Above expected	189 − 154.8 = +34.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 18th of 20

OAP 47.9 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: (533 + ½ × 171) ÷ 1 292	47.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 20

OAP 14.3 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: 198 ÷ 1 383 possessions	14.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 20

OAP 25.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: 187 ÷ (187 + 534)	25.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	9th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 20

OAP 20.5 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: 265 tries ÷ 1 292 shots	20.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	15th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+6.0

Over 9 games Olive Ascoli Piceno's shots were worth 580.0 points and they scored 586 from the floor: 0.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+6.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 251 + 84	586
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	580.0
Shot-making	+6.0
A game	+0.66

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Olive Ascoli Piceno
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 356 league shots	24	0.77	18.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up36 % of 238 league shots	14	0.71	10.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	6	0.72	4.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 343 league shots	31	0.80	24.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	8	0.80	6.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 728 league shots	47	0.76	35.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	5	0.73	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	5	0.73	3.6
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 678 league shots	82	1.18	97.1
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 310 league shots	15	1.14	17.1
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 567 league shots	36	1.25	44.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 640	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Post-up60 % of 322 league shots	16	1.20	19.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 269 league shots	5	1.27	6.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	10	1.06	10.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	1	1.06	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	4	1.06	4.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 559	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 720 league shots	151	1.01	152.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 406 league shots	21	0.96	20.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break31 % of 386 league shots	16	0.92	14.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 571	6	0.99	6.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 504 league shots	30	0.99	29.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	7	0.97	6.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	4	0.97	3.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	1	0.97	1.0
Total adds up	582	1.00	580.0

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Where Olive Ascoli Piceno shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

582 of 582 shots shown

43.1%

251 of 582 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 106 / 173 61% · avg 2.0 ft 51 of the 106 makes assisted league 61% 212pts

MID 61 / 155 39% · avg 14.4 ft 24 of the 61 makes assisted league 37% 122pts

THREE 84 / 254 33% · avg 25.1 ft 71 of the 84 makes assisted league 32% 252pts

251 of 582 from the floor, 586 points, + 94 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

146 of 251 makes were assisted (58%): 51 + 24 + 71.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Olive Ascoli Piceno

30% 27% 44%

League

35% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Olive Ascoli Piceno

32% 42% 18%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Olive Ascoli Piceno: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	184 drives + 45 post-ups + 247 catch and shoot + 106 pull-ups = 582

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Alaattin Günay SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

77/159 shots 154.8 expected 189 scored ▲ +34.2

Achilleas Alvarado PF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

48/102 shots 97.0 expected 106 scored ▲ +9.0

Beniamino Rivas SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/70 shots 67.8 expected 69 scored ▲ +1.2

Dino Lara SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/80 shots 82.4 expected 69 scored ▼ −13.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.