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Oltutaşı Erzurum

Founded 1955 in Erzurum

Palandöken Eteği Salonu, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Oltutaşı Erzurum's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Oltutaşı Erzurum's points say about 13 wins in 17 league games. It has 11. The table has been a little unkind.

11Wins so far

12.5Points say

87.3Scored a game

81.1Allowed a game

+6.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 484
Points allowed	1 379
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9292
To the power of 14	0.3580
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3580)	73.64%
× 17 games played	12.52
Wins the points say	12.5 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Oltutaşı Erzurum won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

116.6

Oltutaşı Erzurum score 116.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.8. That is 2nd of 18.

OLE 116.6

League 109.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 484 points ÷ 1 273 possessions	116.6
League mean, 18 clubs	109.8
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

56.3 %

Oltutaşı Erzurum shoot 56.3 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 2nd of 18.

OLE 56.3 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: (533 + ½ × 164) ÷ 1 093	56.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

31.5

Oltutaşı Erzurum attempt 31.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.7, so 2nd of 18.

OLE 31.5 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: 344 tries ÷ 1 093 shots	31.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Best shot-maker

Egemen Ostojić

#71 · SG

45/83shots

110points

+24.5vs expected

How we counted it

45 made of 83, 20 of them threes	45/83
Points: 2 × 45 + 20	110
His shots are worth (expected)	85.5
Above expected	110 − 85.5 = +24.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 18

OLE 56.3 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: (533 + ½ × 164) ÷ 1 093	56.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 18

OLE 17.1 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: 218 ÷ 1 273 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 18 clubs	7th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 18

OLE 28.2 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: 158 ÷ (158 + 403)	28.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	3rd of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 18

OLE 31.5 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: 344 tries ÷ 1 093 shots	31.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+25.5

Over 7 games Oltutaşı Erzurum's shots were worth 459.5 points and they scored 485 from the floor: 3.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+25.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 213 + 59	485
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	459.5
Shot-making	+25.5
A game	+3.65

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Oltutaşı Erzurum
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 289 league shots	10	0.80	8.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 438	2	0.85	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 438	7	0.85	6.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 438	1	0.85	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 238	16	0.76	12.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 238	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 238	2	0.76	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot42 % of 302 league shots	16	0.83	13.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 412	5	0.84	4.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 412	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 583 league shots	28	0.81	22.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 782	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 782	9	0.78	7.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 782	3	0.78	2.3
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 256 league shots	61	1.22	74.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 932	11	1.24	13.6
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 437 league shots	31	1.32	40.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 932	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-up63 % of 278 league shots	14	1.27	17.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 356	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 356	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 259 league shots	14	1.19	16.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 398	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 398	7	1.28	8.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 398	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	1	1.24	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 247	10	0.92	9.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 247	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 247	4	0.92	3.7
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 247	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 374	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 889 league shots	88	1.13	99.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 279 league shots	14	0.92	12.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 282 league shots	16	1.24	19.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 494	1	1.12	1.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 468 league shots	23	1.01	23.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 608	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 608	3	1.04	3.1
Total adds up	428	1.07	459.5

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Where Oltutaşı Erzurum shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

488 of 488 shots shown

49.0%

239 of 488 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 119 / 179 67% · avg 2.0 ft 64 of the 119 makes assisted league 61% 238pts

MID 48 / 113 43% · avg 14.6 ft 23 of the 48 makes assisted league 41% 96pts

THREE 72 / 196 37% · avg 25.1 ft 60 of the 72 makes assisted league 35% 216pts

239 of 488 from the floor, 550 points, + 125 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

147 of 239 makes were assisted (62%): 64 + 23 + 60.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Oltutaşı Erzurum

36% 25% 39%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Oltutaşı Erzurum

33% 9% 39% 20%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Oltutaşı Erzurum: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	141 drives + 37 post-ups + 165 catch and shoot + 85 pull-ups = 428

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Egemen Ostojić SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

45/83 shots 85.5 expected 110 scored ▲ +24.5

Recep Bečanović PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/54 shots 62.3 expected 71 scored ▲ +8.7

Muharrem Balević SF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/59 shots 60.6 expected 60 scored ▼ −0.6

Kaan Stijović PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

29/71 shots 78.6 expected 66 scored ▼ −12.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.