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Ombrelloni Riccione

Founded 1978 in Riccione

Palestra della Perla Verde, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Ombrelloni Riccione's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Ombrelloni Riccione's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

7.1Points say

71.7Scored a game

70.7Allowed a game

+1.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	932
Points allowed	919
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9861
To the power of 14	0.8215
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8215)	54.90%
× 13 games played	7.14
Wins the points say	7.1 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Ombrelloni Riccione won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

31.0 %

Ombrelloni Riccione win back 31.0 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.5 %. That is 1st of 14.

OMR 31.0 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: 154 ÷ (154 + 343)	31.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

15.9 %

Ombrelloni Riccione give it away on 15.9 % of trips against the league's 14.9 %. Fewer is better: 11th of 14.

OMR 15.9 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: 148 ÷ 933 possessions	15.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

20.7

Ombrelloni Riccione attempt 20.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.1, so 4th of 14.

OMR 20.7 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: 182 tries ÷ 878 shots	20.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Best shot-maker

Baldassare Lozano

#55 · SF

57/122shots

138points

+26.2vs expected

How we counted it

57 made of 122, 24 of them threes	57/122
Points: 2 × 57 + 24	138
His shots are worth (expected)	111.8
Above expected	138 − 111.8 = +26.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 14

OMR 46.1 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: (348 + ½ × 113) ÷ 878	46.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

OMR 15.9 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: 148 ÷ 933 possessions	15.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 14

OMR 31.0 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: 154 ÷ (154 + 343)	31.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 14

OMR 20.7 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: 182 tries ÷ 878 shots	20.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+1.8

Over 6 games Ombrelloni Riccione's shots were worth 381.2 points and they scored 383 from the floor: 0.3 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+1.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 165 + 53	383
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	381.2
Shot-making	+1.8
A game	+0.29

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Ombrelloni Riccione
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 229 league shots	15	0.72	10.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 250 league shots	14	0.71	10.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 401 league shots	35	0.71	25.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	8	0.68	5.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	4	0.68	2.7
Rim · Drive57 % of 950 league shots	61	1.15	70.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	15	1.13	17.0
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 283 league shots	17	1.17	19.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	5	1.13	5.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	14	1.13	15.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	2	1.13	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	8	1.13	9.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	5	1.13	5.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	5	0.91	4.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	4	0.91	3.6
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 356 league shots	104	0.93	97.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 223 league shots	20	0.74	14.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	23	0.92	21.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	5	0.92	4.6
Three · Pull-up25 % of 285 league shots	5	0.74	3.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	6	0.83	5.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	3	0.83	2.5
Total adds up	408	0.93	381.2

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Where Ombrelloni Riccione shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

408 of 408 shots shown

40.4%

165 of 408 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 72 / 135 53% · avg 1.9 ft 35 of the 72 makes assisted league 58% 144pts

MID 40 / 98 41% · avg 13.9 ft 12 of the 40 makes assisted league 35% 80pts

THREE 53 / 175 30% · avg 25.0 ft 43 of the 53 makes assisted league 30% 159pts

165 of 408 from the floor, 383 points, + 45 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

90 of 165 makes were assisted (55%): 35 + 12 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Ombrelloni Riccione

33% 24% 43%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Ombrelloni Riccione

32% 44% 17%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Ombrelloni Riccione: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	130 drives + 29 post-ups + 181 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 408

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Baldassare Lozano SF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

57/122 shots 111.8 expected 138 scored ▲ +26.2

Simone Emordi SF 34 y

Modest21–40

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/66 shots 62.3 expected 69 scored ▲ +6.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.