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Omorike Bajina Bašta

Founded 1971 in Bajina Bašta

Dvorana pod Tarom, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Omorike Bajina Bašta's wins trail its points

−1.1 wins

Omorike Bajina Bašta's points say about 11 wins in 13 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little unkind.

10Wins so far

11.1Points say

79.9Scored a game

70.3Allowed a game

+9.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 039
Points allowed	914
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8797
To the power of 14	0.1662
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.1662)	85.75%
× 13 games played	11.15
Wins the points say	11.1 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Omorike Bajina Bašta won 0 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

95.6

Omorike Bajina Bašta let in 95.6 per 100 trips against the league's 103.5. Lower is better: 1st of 14.

OBB 95.6

League 103.5

How we counted it

100 × 914 allowed ÷ 956 possessions	95.6
League mean, 14 clubs	103.5
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

28.2

Omorike Bajina Bašta attempt 28.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.0, so 1st of 14.

OBB 28.2 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Omorike Bajina Bašta: 241 tries ÷ 854 shots	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A strong attack

109.0

Omorike Bajina Bašta score 109.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.5. That is 2nd of 14.

OBB 109.0

League 103.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 039 points ÷ 953 possessions	109.0
League mean, 14 clubs	103.5
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Şevket Öksüz

#90 · SF

35/68shots

78points

+11.4vs expected

How we counted it

35 made of 68, 8 of them threes	35/68
Points: 2 × 35 + 8	78
His shots are worth (expected)	66.6
Above expected	78 − 66.6 = +11.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

OBB 50.9 %

League 49.8 %

How we counted it

Omorike Bajina Bašta: (382 + ½ × 105) ÷ 854	50.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 14

OBB 15.8 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Omorike Bajina Bašta: 151 ÷ 953 possessions	15.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

OBB 28.2 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Omorike Bajina Bašta: 130 ÷ (130 + 331)	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

OBB 28.2 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Omorike Bajina Bašta: 241 tries ÷ 854 shots	28.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−11.5

Over 6 games Omorike Bajina Bašta's shots were worth 372.5 points and they scored 361 from the floor: 1.9 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−11.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 160 + 41	361
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	372.5
Shot-making	−11.5
A game	−1.91

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Omorike Bajina Bašta
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	18	0.71	12.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 291	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	10	0.73	7.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 176	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	10	0.80	8.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 247	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up35 % of 353 league shots	23	0.70	16.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	7	0.73	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 484	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 861 league shots	62	1.18	73.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	7	1.20	8.4
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 296 league shots	16	1.22	19.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 342	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	12	1.20	14.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 213	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	13	1.17	15.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	3	1.17	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 235	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 897	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	7	0.94	6.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	2	0.94	1.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 305	3	0.94	2.8
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 333 league shots	88	0.90	78.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 203 league shots	12	0.92	11.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 228 league shots	14	1.04	14.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 784	3	0.92	2.8
Three · Pull-up32 % of 302 league shots	18	0.97	17.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	3	0.98	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 385	1	0.98	1.0
Total adds up	381	0.98	372.5

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Where Omorike Bajina Bašta shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

381 of 381 shots shown

42.0%

160 of 381 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 88 / 140 63% · avg 1.9 ft 46 of the 88 makes assisted league 60% 176pts

MID 31 / 88 35% · avg 14.3 ft 13 of the 31 makes assisted league 37% 62pts

THREE 41 / 153 27% · avg 25.2 ft 37 of the 41 makes assisted league 32% 123pts

160 of 381 from the floor, 361 points, + 85 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

96 of 160 makes were assisted (60%): 46 + 13 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Omorike Bajina Bašta

37% 23% 40%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Omorike Bajina Bašta

33% 40% 19%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Omorike Bajina Bašta: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	127 drives + 29 post-ups + 151 catch and shoot + 74 pull-ups = 381

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Şevket Öksüz SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/68 shots 66.6 expected 78 scored ▲ +11.4

Aleksandar Stanimirović SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/73 shots 70.7 expected 69 scored ▼ −1.7

Tanasije Rajković PF 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

20/56 shots 55.8 expected 50 scored ▼ −5.8

Savo Eshiett PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

19/51 shots 49.9 expected 42 scored ▼ −7.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.