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Organari Crema

Founded 1983 in Crema

Palazzetto del Serio, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Organari Crema's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Organari Crema's points say about 3 wins in 19 league games. It has 4. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

4Wins so far

3.5Points say

70.8Scored a game

78.8Allowed a game

−7.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 346
Points allowed	1 497
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1122
To the power of 14	4.4307
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 4.4307)	18.41%
× 19 games played	3.50
Wins the points say	3.5 adds up

Wins so far	4
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Organari Crema won 0 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

46.9 %

Organari Crema shoot 46.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.4 %. That is 20th of 20.

ORC 46.9 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Organari Crema: (513 + ½ × 192) ÷ 1 298	46.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Few trips to the line

14.9

Organari Crema attempt 14.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.3, so 20th of 20.

ORC 14.9 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Organari Crema: 193 tries ÷ 1 298 shots	14.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

A thin attack

97.0

Organari Crema score 97.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.5. That is 19th of 20.

ORC 97.0

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 346 points ÷ 1 387 possessions	97.0
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	19th of 20

Best shot-maker

Massimo Çetinkaya

#23 · SF

65/158shots

172points

+13.0vs expected

How we counted it

65 made of 158, 42 of them threes	65/158
Points: 2 × 65 + 42	172
His shots are worth (expected)	159.0
Above expected	172 − 159.0 = +13.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 20th of 20

ORC 46.9 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Organari Crema: (513 + ½ × 192) ÷ 1 298	46.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 16th of 20

ORC 18.0 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Organari Crema: 249 ÷ 1 387 possessions	18.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 20

ORC 29.2 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Organari Crema: 219 ÷ (219 + 530)	29.2 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 20th of 20

ORC 14.9 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Organari Crema: 193 tries ÷ 1 298 shots	14.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−68.2

Over 8 games Organari Crema's shots were worth 538.2 points and they scored 470 from the floor: 8.5 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−68.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 201 + 68	470
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	538.2
Shot-making	−68.2
A game	−8.52

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Organari Crema
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 396 league shots	17	0.77	13.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	5	0.77	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 242 league shots	12	0.86	10.3
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	3	0.87	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 384 league shots	20	0.74	14.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	7	0.79	5.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 708 league shots	36	0.73	26.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	8	0.73	5.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	2	0.73	1.5
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 663 league shots	70	1.18	82.8
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 261 league shots	17	1.10	18.6
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 547 league shots	28	1.31	36.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 557	8	1.21	9.6
Rim · Post-up61 % of 315 league shots	18	1.21	21.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 233 league shots	6	1.29	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	7	1.28	9.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	10	1.05	10.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 2 721 league shots	145	1.00	145.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 456 league shots	21	0.76	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 379 league shots	22	1.04	22.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 611	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Pull-up36 % of 532 league shots	25	1.07	26.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	6	0.99	5.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	536	1.00	538.2

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Where Organari Crema shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

606 of 606 shots shown

37.0%

224 of 606 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 110 / 185 60% · avg 1.9 ft 51 of the 110 makes assisted league 60% 220pts

MID 42 / 153 28% · avg 14.6 ft 21 of the 42 makes assisted league 38% 84pts

THREE 72 / 268 27% · avg 25.4 ft 51 of the 72 makes assisted league 33% 216pts

224 of 606 from the floor, 520 points, + 76 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

123 of 224 makes were assisted (55%): 51 + 21 + 51.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Organari Crema

31% 24% 45%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Organari Crema

31% 45% 17%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Organari Crema: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	167 drives + 37 post-ups + 239 catch and shoot + 93 pull-ups = 536

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Massimo Çetinkaya SF 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

65/158 shots 159.0 expected 172 scored ▲ +13.0

Saúl Carrizo C 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/56 shots 61.2 expected 46 scored ▼ −15.2

Mauricio Bustos SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/88 shots 90.3 expected 75 scored ▼ −15.3

Gustas Daukantas SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/106 shots 101.3 expected 66 scored ▼ −35.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.