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Orguljaši Zadar

Founded 1949 in Zadar

Dvorana na Poluotoku, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Orguljaši Zadar's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Orguljaši Zadar's points say about 11 wins in 22 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.2Points say

84.6Scored a game

84.4Allowed a game

+0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 862
Points allowed	1 856
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9968
To the power of 14	0.9558
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9558)	51.13%
× 22 games played	11.25
Wins the points say	11.2 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Orguljaši Zadar won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

109.5

Orguljaši Zadar let in 109.5 per 100 trips against the league's 113.9. Lower is better: 1st of 12.

ORZ 109.5

League 113.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 856 allowed ÷ 1 695 possessions	109.5
League mean, 12 clubs	113.9
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

109.3

Orguljaši Zadar score 109.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 113.9. That is 10th of 12.

ORZ 109.3

League 113.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 862 points ÷ 1 703 possessions	109.3
League mean, 12 clubs	113.9
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

54.2 %

Orguljaši Zadar shoot 54.2 % effective. The league shoots 56.0 %. That is 9th of 12.

ORZ 54.2 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Orguljaši Zadar: (653 + ½ × 218) ÷ 1 406	54.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Best shot-maker

Saulius Gražulis

#94 · SG

80/150shots

199points

+32.2vs expected

How we counted it

80 made of 150, 39 of them threes	80/150
Points: 2 × 80 + 39	199
His shots are worth (expected)	166.8
Above expected	199 − 166.8 = +32.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 12

ORZ 54.2 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Orguljaši Zadar: (653 + ½ × 218) ÷ 1 406	54.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 12

ORZ 19.2 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Orguljaši Zadar: 327 ÷ 1 703 possessions	19.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

ORZ 24.7 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Orguljaši Zadar: 176 ÷ (176 + 537)	24.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 12

ORZ 29.9 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Orguljaši Zadar: 421 tries ÷ 1 406 shots	29.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−11.7

Over 11 games Orguljaši Zadar's shots were worth 777.7 points and they scored 766 from the floor: 1.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−11.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 327 + 112	766
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	777.7
Shot-making	−11.7
A game	−1.06

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Orguljaši Zadar
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 224 league shots	19	0.76	14.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	6	0.74	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	25	0.78	19.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 244 league shots	37	0.85	31.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	6	0.88	5.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	6	0.88	5.2
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 541 league shots	37	0.85	31.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	11	0.86	9.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	1	0.86	0.9
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 269 league shots	99	1.22	120.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	19	1.22	23.2
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 502 league shots	44	1.29	57.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	5	1.22	6.1
Rim · Post-up58 % of 322 league shots	19	1.17	22.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	5	1.19	6.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 307 league shots	30	1.27	38.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	5	1.29	6.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	8	1.29	10.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	16	1.08	17.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	1	1.08	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	7	1.08	7.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	6	1.10	6.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	2	1.10	2.2
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	1	1.10	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 3 416	1	1.14	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 837 league shots	151	1.14	172.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 280 league shots	21	1.04	21.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 363 league shots	46	1.25	57.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 2 557	6	1.15	6.9
Three · Pull-up39 % of 420 league shots	40	1.16	46.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	3	1.12	3.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	4	1.12	4.5
Total adds up	705	1.10	777.7

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Where Orguljaši Zadar shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

705 of 705 shots shown

46.4%

327 of 705 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 152 / 261 58% · avg 2.0 ft 91 of the 152 makes assisted league 63% 304pts

MID 63 / 163 39% · avg 14.3 ft 31 of the 63 makes assisted league 41% 126pts

THREE 112 / 281 40% · avg 25.2 ft 103 of the 112 makes assisted league 38% 336pts

327 of 705 from the floor, 766 points, + 170 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

225 of 327 makes were assisted (69%): 91 + 31 + 103.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Orguljaši Zadar

37% 23% 40%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Orguljaši Zadar

29% 8% 45% 17%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Orguljaši Zadar: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	206 drives + 59 post-ups + 317 catch and shoot + 123 pull-ups = 705

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Saulius Gražulis SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

80/150 shots 166.8 expected 199 scored ▲ +32.2

Bernard Podbevšek PF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

79/143 shots 155.6 expected 179 scored ▲ +23.4

Taner Ceylan PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

56/120 shots 134.1 expected 135 scored ▲ +0.9

Karlo Miletić SF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/75 shots 84.5 expected 64 scored ▼ −20.5

Valentin Flowers SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

19/61 shots 67.3 expected 43 scored ▼ −24.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.