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Palirroies Chalkida

Founded 1939 in Chalkida

Gymnastirio tou Evripou, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Palirroies Chalkida's wins match its points

−0.3 wins

Palirroies Chalkida's points say about 8 wins in 15 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.3Points say

84.1Scored a game

82.8Allowed a game

+1.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 261
Points allowed	1 242
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9849
To the power of 14	0.8085
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8085)	55.29%
× 15 games played	8.29
Wins the points say	8.3 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Palirroies Chalkida won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

56.0 %

Palirroies Chalkida shoot 56.0 % effective. The league shoots 54.3 %. That is 5th of 16.

PAC 56.0 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: (463 + ½ × 162) ÷ 972	56.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

25.7 %

Palirroies Chalkida win back 25.7 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.9 %. That is 11th of 16.

PAC 25.7 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: 128 ÷ (128 + 370)	25.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

25.5

Palirroies Chalkida attempt 25.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.0, so 11th of 16.

PAC 25.5 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: 248 tries ÷ 972 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Best shot-maker

Ellis Gillespie

#31 · SF

35/78shots

91points

+12.0vs expected

How we counted it

35 made of 78, 21 of them threes	35/78
Points: 2 × 35 + 21	91
His shots are worth (expected)	79.0
Above expected	91 − 79.0 = +12.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 16

PAC 56.0 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: (463 + ½ × 162) ÷ 972	56.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 16

PAC 17.1 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: 190 ÷ 1 113 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 16

PAC 25.7 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: 128 ÷ (128 + 370)	25.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 16

PAC 25.5 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: 248 tries ÷ 972 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	11th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+22.2

Over 6 games Palirroies Chalkida's shots were worth 413.8 points and they scored 436 from the floor: 3.7 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+22.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 184 + 68	436
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	413.8
Shot-making	+22.2
A game	+3.70

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Palirroies Chalkida
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 224 league shots	13	0.79	10.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	6	0.82	4.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	8	0.84	6.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 209 league shots	18	0.80	14.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up44 % of 436 league shots	21	0.89	18.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	7	0.86	6.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	4	0.86	3.4
Rim · Drive63 % of 936 league shots	51	1.26	64.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	7	1.24	8.7
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 357 league shots	18	1.23	22.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Post-up58 % of 245 league shots	10	1.16	11.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 221 league shots	13	1.23	16.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	6	1.24	7.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	10	1.13	11.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	4	1.13	4.5
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 690	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 466 league shots	93	1.04	96.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 235 league shots	17	1.11	18.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break38 % of 258 league shots	20	1.14	22.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 012	5	1.07	5.3
Three · Pull-up33 % of 330 league shots	28	0.98	27.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	5	0.99	4.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	390	1.06	413.8

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Where Palirroies Chalkida shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

451 of 451 shots shown

49.0%

221 of 451 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 94 / 137 69% · avg 1.9 ft 50 of the 94 makes assisted league 63% 188pts

MID 47 / 100 47% · avg 14.3 ft 25 of the 47 makes assisted league 41% 94pts

THREE 80 / 214 37% · avg 25.0 ft 74 of the 80 makes assisted league 36% 240pts

221 of 451 from the floor, 522 points, + 78 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

149 of 221 makes were assisted (67%): 50 + 25 + 74.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Palirroies Chalkida

30% 22% 48%

League

36% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Palirroies Chalkida

30% 45% 19%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Palirroies Chalkida: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	116 drives + 25 post-ups + 175 catch and shoot + 74 pull-ups = 390

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ellis Gillespie SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/78 shots 79.0 expected 91 scored ▲ +12.0

Blaise Escudero Injured PF 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/59 shots 62.1 expected 63 scored ▲ +0.9

Haralambos Ostojić SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/81 shots 87.5 expected 80 scored ▼ −7.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.