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Pallonari Macerata

Founded 1957 in Macerata

Palazzetto del Chienti, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Pallonari Macerata's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Pallonari Macerata's points say about 8 wins in 19 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

7.9Points say

76.1Scored a game

77.9Allowed a game

−1.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 446
Points allowed	1 481
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0242
To the power of 14	1.3977
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.3977)	41.71%
× 19 games played	7.92
Wins the points say	7.9 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pallonari Macerata won 4 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

29.6

Pallonari Macerata attempt 29.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.3, so 2nd of 20.

PAM 29.6 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: 356 tries ÷ 1 204 shots	29.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

Weakness

A leaky defence

106.1

Pallonari Macerata let in 106.1 per 100 trips against the league's 103.9. Lower is better: 16th of 20.

PAM 106.1

League 103.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 481 allowed ÷ 1 396 possessions	106.1
League mean, 20 clubs	103.9
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

Weakness

Weak on the glass

25.0 %

Pallonari Macerata win back 25.0 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 13th of 20.

PAM 25.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: 166 ÷ (166 + 499)	25.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Best shot-maker

Efisio Cuesta

#33 · SG

75/159shots

189points

+29.4vs expected

How we counted it

75 made of 159, 39 of them threes	75/159
Points: 2 × 75 + 39	189
His shots are worth (expected)	159.6
Above expected	189 − 159.6 = +29.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 20

PAM 49.9 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: (523 + ½ × 156) ÷ 1 204	49.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	11th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 20

PAM 17.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: 238 ÷ 1 399 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	11th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 20

PAM 25.0 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: 166 ÷ (166 + 499)	25.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 20

PAM 29.6 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: 356 tries ÷ 1 204 shots	29.6 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	2nd of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−11.0

Over 8 games Pallonari Macerata's shots were worth 511.0 points and they scored 500 from the floor: 1.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−11.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 219 + 62	500
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	511.0
Shot-making	−11.0
A game	−1.38

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Pallonari Macerata
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 356 league shots	20	0.77	15.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	6	0.78	4.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up36 % of 238 league shots	11	0.71	7.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 343 league shots	20	0.80	16.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 728 league shots	23	0.76	17.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	4	0.73	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 678 league shots	87	1.18	103.1
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 310 league shots	14	1.14	16.0
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 567 league shots	27	1.25	33.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 640	6	1.19	7.1
Rim · Post-up60 % of 322 league shots	20	1.20	24.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 269 league shots	17	1.27	21.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	8	1.25	10.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	3	1.20	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	9	1.06	9.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 559	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 720 league shots	106	1.01	107.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 406 league shots	17	0.96	16.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break31 % of 386 league shots	15	0.92	13.8
Three · Pull-up33 % of 504 league shots	29	0.99	28.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	3	0.97	2.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	6	0.97	5.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	1	0.97	1.0
Total adds up	495	1.03	511.0

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Where Pallonari Macerata shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

566 of 566 shots shown

44.3%

251 of 566 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 135 / 228 59% · avg 1.9 ft 69 of the 135 makes assisted league 61% 270pts

MID 42 / 114 37% · avg 14.4 ft 23 of the 42 makes assisted league 37% 84pts

THREE 74 / 224 33% · avg 25.3 ft 66 of the 74 makes assisted league 32% 222pts

251 of 566 from the floor, 576 points, + 123 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

158 of 251 makes were assisted (63%): 69 + 23 + 66.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pallonari Macerata

41% 21% 38%

League

35% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pallonari Macerata

36% 39% 17%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Pallonari Macerata: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	178 drives + 39 post-ups + 192 catch and shoot + 86 pull-ups = 495

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Efisio Cuesta SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

75/159 shots 159.6 expected 189 scored ▲ +29.4

Delfino Davenport PG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/94 shots 98.4 expected 80 scored ▼ −18.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.